NBA Fantasy News 2012/2013

HacheMan · Oct 20, 2012

Wolves' Kevin Love out 6-8 weeks

MINNEAPOLIS -- Kevin Love returned from the London Olympics determined to do what every one of his U.S. teammates already have done -- lead his team to the playoffs.
The Minnesota Timberwolves likely will have to begin the first month of that pursuit without him.
The two-time All-Star broke his right hand while doing knuckle pushups in a morning workout Wednesday and will miss six to eight weeks. Love met with specialists in New York on Thursday, who informed him that the injury can heal without surgery.

Love broke the third and fourth metacarpals on his shooting hand in a workout before practice. It's a crushing blow to the Timberwolves, who already will be without star point guard Ricky Rubio for what is expected to be at least the first six weeks of the regular season while he recovers from a torn ACL in his left knee.
The Timberwolves open the regular season at home against Sacramento on Nov. 2.
Team owner Glen Taylor, speaking to reporters at halftime of the WNBA Finals, tried to keep a positive attitude about the situation, expressing hope that Love will only miss a month of the regular season and confidence that Derrick Williams and Dante Cunningham will take advantage of the extra playing time to help the Wolves for the future.
"I think all of our fans anticipated this season with great enthusiasm. We knew we were going to have to wait for Ricky, and now we have two guys to wait for," Taylor said. "But again, I'm going to be positive about it and say we've got some young guys and let's see them step up."
All the work team president David Kahn and the rest of the front office did to add veteran depth this summer is about to be tested more than they ever could have imagined.
Love averaged 26 points and 13.3 rebounds last season, leading the team in both categories and emerging as the best power forward in the game. He signed a four-year contract in January worth more than $60 million, then played a key role in the United States' march to the gold medal in London.
As the only NBA veteran on Team USA who had yet to appear in the playoffs, Love came back brimming with confidence that this was the year the Wolves would break through for the first time since 2004. That already was going to be a challenge in the powerful Western Conference without Rubio, the dynamic point guard who quickly became the glue that held this young team together before injuring his knee in a game against the Lakers on March 9.
But with veteran additions Andrei Kirilenko, Brandon Roy, Cunningham and Greg Stiemsma, Love was convinced they would be able to weather playing without Rubio better than last season, when they lost 20 of their last 25 games after he went down.

"We have a great training camp and we can get off to a good start and guys stay healthy, there's really no telling what we can do," Love said just before training camp opened. "I know a lot of teams in the Western Conference have loaded up, but I still feel we can knock those teams off and have a really good year."
Two weeks before the season has even started, the wishes for good health are already out the window. Love, who scored 24 points and grabbed eight rebounds in a preseason win over Maccabi Haifa on Tuesday night, was scheduled to fly to New York for an examination by Dr. Andy Weiland on Thursday.
He had a similar injury to his left hand in mid-October of 2009 and wound up missing the first 18 games of the regular season.
The injury likely means more playing time for Williams, last year's second overall pick. With Love at power forward, Williams worked diligently to lose some weight, reshape his body and work on his ball-handling to try to earn more minutes at small forward.
Williams has always been more comfortable at power forward, so this could be the opportunity for him to make a consistent impact that coach Rick Adelman has been waiting to see from him. Williams impressed coaches with his physical conditioning and aggressive approach to practice when training camp began, but the playing time has still been sporadic.
He played just seven minutes Tuesday night against Haifa while Adelman took longer looks at the starting unit and Cunningham off the bench at power forward. Cunningham and Lou Amundson have both impressed Adelman with their tenacity and aggressiveness both in games and during practice.

"I think he's really an energy guy," Adelman has said about Cunningham. "Very good defender. Does all the little things. Him and Lou are very similar. The things that maybe we didn't do so well last year, running down loose balls, getting to the offensive boards, keeping the boards alive."
Adelman also has the versatile Kirilenko, who can play both forward positions, to lean on. He could choose to slide Kirilenko to power forward and use Chase Budinger at the small forward in another starting lineup.
Love's absence will also put more pressure on veteran shooting guard Brandon Roy's knees to hold up. Roy was signed in the offseason after missing last year with chronic knee issues. He has held up very well so far in the preseason, and his scoring now becomes even more crucial to fill Love's void.
Taylor said he didn't know any more specifics about how Love was hurt. He said "all options are open" for adding another player to the roster to fill in for now.

HacheMan · Oct 20, 2012

Fantasy hoops sleepers and busts

When you begin drafting a fantasy league, it's good to have some sense of value in your head. It doesn't only matter which players you get, it also matters where you get them. To that end, we suggest compiling some sort of tiered system of sleepers and busts, players for whom the perceived value differs significantly from how you personally feel about them.

To put it in more practical terms, while you might hate the idea of drafting Dwight Howard in the first round (because of your concerns about his back and his ability to fit into a new offensive system), he might start to look really good if he slides into the fourth round. It's all about finding that point where you are maximizing the value of every draft pick you make.

The last thing you want is to have your next pick looming in the queue and no idea whatsoever which player you're going to take. Taking the time to decide how you feel about players (and how your sense of them differs from the public's sense of them) will allow you to have players in mind when your pick is coming up, so that when it's the sixth round, and Jrue Holiday is sitting there, you're eagerly anticipating your turn instead of feeling a rising sense of dread and confusion.

So, with that in mind, here are our panelists' picks for sleepers and busts to get you started. Our panelists are Tom Carpenter, John Cregan, Seth Landman, Brian McKitish, Neil Tardy and Josh Whitling.

[h=3]Sleepers[/h]
(Ranked within the position in order of when you can expect to get them, from earliest to latest)

[h=4]Sleepers[/h]

Analyst	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Carpenter	Jeff Teague	Klay Thompson	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Derrick Favors	Jonas Valanciunas
Cregan	Darren Collison	Lou Williams	Harrison Barnes	Tristan Thompson	Jonas Valanciunas
Landman	Ramon Sessions	Brandon Knight	Andrei Kirilenko	Gustavo Ayon	DeAndre Jordan
McKitish	Raymond Felton	O.J. Mayo	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Kenneth Faried	Omer Asik
Tardy	Jrue Holiday	DeMar DeRozan	Tyreke Evans	Andrea Bargnani	Nikola Pekovic
Whitling	Mo Williams	O.J. Mayo	Nicolas Batum	Al Horford	Chris Kaman

[h=3]Point Guard[/h]
Jrue Holiday, Philadelphia 76ers: He disappointed last season, but entering a contract year, Holiday's assist total should spike with Andrew Bynum now manning the middle. With so many talented young PGs, bargains are tough to get at this position, but you have a chance with Holiday. -- Neil Tardy

Darren Collison, Dallas Mavericks: I have this feeling that the Mavericks' backcourt is going to be undervalued in drafts because there are so many new pieces that no one quite knows where to gauge their value. Assuming Collison fends off Roderick Beaubois, he should be in line for 32-34 minutes a game. Collison had a down year last season (10.4 PPG, 4.8 APG), but to me, he's like Jameer Nelson used to be … a point guard you could pick up in the ninth or 10th round and outperform his average draft position by 10 spots or so. --John Cregan

Mo Williams, Utah Jazz: His primary competitor for minutes is Randy Foye, and Williams has already proven he can outplay him. He'll be asked to be more of a playmaker now that he's not on a team with Chris Paul, and should see his overall usage increase significantly. He's a lock for nearly two 3s per game and should notch around six assists with Devin Harris out of the picture. --Josh Whitling

Raymond Felton, New York Knicks: For all of his troubles last season, including showing up out of shape, Felton was still one of only 10 eligible players to average at least five assists, one steal and one 3-pointer per game. Now back in New York and reportedly motivated, Felton should be in line for a bounce-back season. He's certainly not going to put up 17.1 points, 9.0 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.6 3-pointers as he did in his last stint with the Knicks, but he'll still be a nice investment on draft day. --Brian McKitish

Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks: With Joe Johnson out of the picture, Teague will have every chance to shine while driving the Hawks' offense. I think he's ready to step into that role and he has the potential for a well-rounded fantasy game, including 3s, dimes, steals and percentages. --Tom Carpenter

Ramon Sessions, Charlotte Bobcats: For all of his struggles in the playoffs, Sessions was pretty darn good for the Los Angeles Lakers down the stretch of the regular season. Averaging 30 minutes per game for the first time in his career, over 23 games he managed 12.7 points, 6.2 assists, and 3.2 rebounds. He should get plenty of playing time in Charlotte this season, and it is rare to get this kind of production, especially in assists, this late in the draft. --Seth Landman

[h=3]Shooting Guard[/h]
Lou Williams, Atlanta Hawks: I think Williams and Aaron Afflalo are in similar situations. They're both under-the-radar players who have been thrust into top-2 scoring options on their respective teams. Williams gets the nod here because of his likely lower ADP and PG eligibility. If you want to get salivating, take a gander at Williams' per-36 minute numbers; 20.5 PPG, 4.7 AST, 1.8 3PM. Not to mention he shoots .812 from the line .362 from behind-the-arc. He'll probably get at least 30 minutes per game in Atlanta this season. --Cregan

Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors: He gave us a hint of what to expect after Monta Ellis was traded and we should expect even more as he grows into the pro game. Huge 3-point upside. --Carpenter

O.J. Mayo, Dallas Mavericks: His fantasy value as well as his perception as a player have both been tarnished since being relegated to bench duty the past two seasons in Memphis. But now he's starting for a Mavericks team in need of perimeter offense and a capable playmaker alongside Darren Collison. The last time he started, Mayo averaged 17.5 points, 1.7 3s, 1.2 steals and 3.0 assists per game, and he's moving into a role where he'll likely see as many offensive touches in the first quarter as he did in some entire games in Memphis. --Whitling
[h=3][/h]
DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors: DeRozan seemed to get a little 3-pointer happy early last season, but if he continues to take it to the hole, he'll come closer to his 46.7 percent shooting of 2010-11 than his 42.2 percent of 2011-12. I'd like to see a few more steals from the athletic 23-year-old, but the career 80.2 foul shooter does get to the line (5.3 attempts last season). I'll take that attribute plus DeRozan's high ceiling come the eighth or ninth round. --Tardy

Brandon Knight, Detroit Pistons: Not that Ben Gordon was a major obstacle last year, but he's elsewhere now, and Knight already was second on the team in minutes behind Tayshaun Prince last season. I'd like to see him get more steals, and the turnovers were definitely a problem, but at just 20 years old (and with point guard eligibility) he's got the potential to be an elite shooter and to improve in assists and percentages as well. Averages of 15 points, two 3s and five assists per game aren't out of the question at all. --Landman

[h=3]Small Forward[/h]
Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers: People are typically shy about drafting players with modest scoring totals in the first few rounds, and Batum doesn't have superstar name recognition. But he ranked 43rd on the 2011-12 Player Rater and only started in 34 of his 59 games played. In those starts, he averaged 15.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.9 3s, 1.0 blocks and 0.9 steals per game, while shooting 45.2 percent from the floor and 84.2 percent from the stripe. Only two players averaged one 3, steal and block per game last season: Batum and Kevin Durant. He's already statistically impressive, and has nowhere to go but up. --Whitling

Tyreke Evans, Sacramento Kings: Obviously not every player heading into a contract year excels. And much of what we hear about players who work hard in the offseason turns out to be empty talk once the games start. But in Evans, you have someone who apparently trained hard this summer AND is seeking a max deal. So I'll take the combo and go into this preseason liking Evans. Speaking of combos, 'Reke's PG/SG/SF eligibility in ESPN.com leagues isn't a bad thing to have, either. --Tardy

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte Bobcats: ESPN's Chad Ford had only one negative in his draft profile for MKG: "Lacks a consistent perimeter game." No problem; he doesn't need a perimeter game to far surpass his ADP. MKG is a physical freak on a team where he can play all the minutes he can handle and can stuff all stats. He'll be a fantasy factor right away, even if he doesn't score well. --Carpenter

Andrei Kirilenko, Minnesota Timberwolves: I'm choosing to focus on the fact that he'll be a great fit in the Rick Adelman's offense as a guy who has consistently hovered around three assists per game as a forward for his whole career. He's a mortal lock to average more than a steal and a block per game when he's healthy, too. I love him for this season. --Landman

Harrison Barnes, Golden State Warriors: I love the Warriors' team-wide fantasy prospects this season. I think if Barnes wins the starting SF job in camp, you could be looking at a mini-Rudy Gay-type season. Gay averaged 10.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and almost a steal, block, and 3-pointer per game in his rookie season. Of all the rookies, Barnes is the one I think has the best chance to outperform his ADP. If you're in an auction keeper league, see if you can get him cheap late. --Cregan

[h=3]Power Forward[/h]
Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks: His 2011-2012 season was wrecked by an injury, which makes it easy to forget that he was a consensus third-rounder last year and has shown steady improvement throughout his NBA career. Many Hawks fans have wished that the offense were run through him for years, and now that Joe Johnson is out of the picture, Horford should become a more focal point of the offense. --Whitling

Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets: Faried may be a bit undersized, but few can match his quickness and motor in the paint. With averages of 11.7 points, 8.4 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 1.1 blocks in just 25.2 minutes per game after the All-Star break last season, and an increase in minutes on the horizon, Faried has to be considered one of fantasy's top breakout candidates this season. --McKitish

Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors: Bargs was one of my sleepers a year ago, and I'm willing to write off his injury-plagued season to the post-lockout chaos. Before going down the first time, he averaged 23.5 points and 6.2 boards over his first 10 games. Small sample size? Cherry-picking numbers? Of course, but I don't care. Bargnani is a bargain at pick 50; if he falls close to pick 60, he's a steal. --Tardy

Derrick Favors, Utah Jazz: The Jazz can't keep this kid under wraps for long. I expect him to start sooner than later, and with Dwight Howard-type upside, he's a terrific option to round out your starting lineup. --Carpenter

Tristan Thompson, Cleveland Cavaliers: Thompson has no competition at the power forward spot, has double-double potential, and blocks shots. He's also on a young team that will be willing to let him play through rough patches and will run a lot more this season. Nice late-round upside here. --Cregan

Gustavo Ayon, Orlando Magic: He averaged 0.9 blocks and 1.0 steals in just 20 minutes per game last season, and at 53.6 percent shooting from the floor, he's a competent offensive option as well. Among power forwards and centers who played at least 20 minutes, only Marcus Camby, Joakim Noah and Spencer Hawes had a higher assist rate and rebound rate. A competent player at both ends of the floor on a team that really needs as many of those as it can find, Ayon should find 30 minutes a game for himself this time around. --Landman

[h=3]Center[/h]Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves: Of course it'd be nice if Pek blocked more shots, but as his numbers as a starter last season (15.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, and percentages of 54.7 and 74.2) illustrate, he does everything else. And don't slide him down your board just because Ricky Rubio won't start the year; Pekovic should average a double-double in 2012-13. --Tardy

Chris Kaman, Dallas Mavericks: His overall numbers from last season were hampered by initially sharing time with Emeka Okafor and then the Hornets benching him for no logical reason, but after the All-Star break he averaged 14.8 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game. He'll get plenty of run as the only legitimate center on the Mavericks' roster, and is undervalued because of his slow start last season and the fact he has disappointed fantasy owners many times in the past. But 14 points/8 rebounds/2 blocks is worth starting in any format, especially if you can get it in the later rounds. -Carpenter
[h=3][/h] [h=3][/h][h=3][/h]
DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers: I know Jordan is not necessarily all that great at playing basketball, but he could grab eight rebounds and block two shots per game in his sleep, and his high field goal percentage can cure a lot of ills as well. Yes, he's a terrible free throw shooter, but at least he never gets to the line. --Landman

Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto Raptors: Here's a rookie that absolutely no one is talking about, yet he has one of the clearest paths to a starting role. His rookie year could be comparable to prime Andris Biedrins; something close to a double-double and 1.5 blocks per game. --Cregan

Omer Asik, Houston Rockets: Asik may be challenged on the offensive end, but few can argue with his skills on the defensive side of the ball. With 5.3 rebounds, 0.5 steals and 1.0 blocks in just 14.7 minutes for the Bulls last season, Asik figures to be a solid late-round selection with more minutes on the way in Houston. --McKitish

[h=3]Busts[/h](Ranked within the position in order of when you can expect to get them, from earliest to latest)

[h=4]Busts[/h]

Analyst PG SG SF PF C
Carpenter Raymond Felton Eric Gordon Brandon Roy Kris Humphries Dwight Howard
Cregan Steve Nash Eric Gordon Danilo Gallinari Blake Griffin Dwight Howard
Landman Tony Parker Arron Afflalo Tyreke Evans Blake Griffin Andrew Bynum
Brian McKitish Jose Calderon Kevin Martin Tyreke Evans Blake Griffin Dwight Howard
Tardy Steve Nash Arron Afflalo Gerald Wallace Ryan Anderson Glen Davis
Whitling Monta Ellis Andre Iguodala Danny Granger Blake Griffin Dwight Howard

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>

[h=3]Point Guard[/h]
Monta Ellis, Milwaukee Bucks: Playing alongside Brandon Jennings for an entire season hurts Ellis' value across the board. They'll rival the Thunder backcourt as the highest scoring in the league, but Ellis' numbers have already been trending in the wrong direction over the past few seasons, and Jennings' continued development hinders his fantasy value. --Whitling

Steve Nash, Los Angeles Lakers: There really isn't a point guard projected to go in the top five rounds I would label as a "bust," but Nash comes closest … if owners believe he will sustain the value he has held in Phoenix. Nash will still provide solid value in the early fourth round, but his days as a top-20 player are over, mostly because he'll have to share touches with Kobe Bryant. Even if the offense (as advertised) runs through Nash, his numbers will dip, probably into the 13.5 PPG, 8.5 APG range. --Cregan

Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs: In one of the best seasons of his career last year at age 29, Parker finished 41st on the Player Rater and he played 60 out of 66 games, so it's not as though he had an injury that pushed him down the rankings. So if he's going in the first four rounds, which I think he will, that's an issue, because there's no real room for upside. Now he's 30, and seems to have given up on 3-point shooting entirely. I'm just not sure how long he can play the way he has played in recent seasons. --Landman

Raymond Felton, New York Knicks: Felton returns to the Big Apple, where he had his one good fantasy season. Trouble is that season was a product of high-volume touches and coach Mike D'Antoni's offense. Now D'Antoni is gone and Melo is there usurping all of the touches. --Carpenter

Jose Calderon, Toronto Raptors: I'm not exactly going out on a limb here after the Raptors signed Kyle Lowry over the offseason, but Calderon is going to have a hard time earning enough minutes as long as Lowry is healthy this season. If anything, Calderon will make more of an impact in fantasy leagues by cutting into Lowry's value rather than creating value for himself. --McKitish

[h=3]Shooting Guard[/h]
Andre Iguodala, Denver Nuggets: Surrounded by so many players who can handle the ball and create their own shot in Denver, Iguodala's assist numbers will surely suffer, and with a bevy of capable wing players, it's hard to see him reclaiming his glory days when he nearly averaged 20 points per game. He hasn't averaged over 1.7 steals per game since 2007-08, so even though he's an excellent thief, he's no longer a lock for top-5 in steals. --Whitling

Eric Gordon, New Orleans Hornets: 78, 62, 56, 9. That's not a snap count. Those are Eric Gordon's games played over the past four seasons. He's potentially a top-30 player, but I stay away unless he slides into the fifth round. There are too many other intriguing options at SG in the middle rounds to merit an early-round pick. --Cregan

Arron Afflalo, Orlando Magic: Afflalo offers nice percentages by guard standards, but across the board, his numbers are pretty ordinary. I suppose his scoring could improve with a Magic team likely looking for offense, but if he takes more shots, it seems likely he'll fall noticeably short of his career 46.6 field-goal percentage. Long story short, I'll never reach for a player just because he can produce 15.0 points and 1.5 3-pointers. --Tardy

Kevin Martin, Houston Rockets: Fantasy owners used to tolerate Martin's propensity for injury in the past because he was always a proven fantasy asset when healthy, but he will face more than just questions about his health this season. After a disastrous 2011-12 season where he found himself in and out of Kevin McHale's doghouse, Martin's reward might not be worth the risk any longer. --McKitish

[h=3]Small Forward
Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers: His scoring, steals and 3s have decreased in each of the past three seasons, and with the continued development of Paul George, Granger's name recognition and reputation as a fantasy stud will cause him to go higher in drafts that I want to choose him. --Whitling

Gerald Wallace, Brooklyn Nets: I don't hate Wallace, but given what his body has been through, Crash seems like an "old" 30. While he's capable of contributing in practically every category, the days of him approaching elite numbers (like 2.0 steals or 8.0 rebounds) are likely behind him. If I have a choice between Wallace and Paul George, I want the player who's on the way up. --Tardy

Tyreke Evans, Sacramento Kings: As a former Tyreke supporter, it pains me to list him in the bust section, but I just can't ignore his somewhat pedestrian stats after the Kings moved him to small forward to make room for Isaiah Thomas last season. In 26 starts as a forward, Evans averaged 15.6 points, 4.4 boards, 4.1 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Those aren't terrible numbers, but it's a far cry from the 20 points/5 rebounds/5 assists he posted as a rookie. --McKitish

Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets: A lot of people are predicting a breakout campaign for Gallinari, but I'm thinking he stays closer to 15-point, 5-rebound, 1.5 3-pointer range. He's streaky, injury-prone, and has Wilson Chandler pushing him for minutes. I still like his upside, but wouldn't bite before the late seventh round. Small forward is VERY deep this season, and there's no need to reach. --Cregan

Brandon Roy, Minnesota Timberwolves: You can't draft him with visions of the old Roy in mind. That guy is gone. I'd rather use my pick on a guy with upside than a guy who will be a constant injury risk with no upside for his ADP. --Carpenter
[/h][h=3]Power Forward
Blake Griffin, Clippers: I'll let somebody else be mesmerized by his once-in-a-generation athleticism and focus on the crippling free throw percentage, the fact his numbers went down from his rookie to sophomore campaign, and the fact he had offseason knee surgery. --Whitling

Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Hornets: I think there's a big difference between the Anderson making nearly 3.0 3-pointers per game playing off Dwight Howard and the Anderson who will probably average about 1.8 to 2.0 3s per game in New Orleans. Look at it this way; Anderson was tops with 2.7 3PM last season, but 22 other players averaged at least 1.8 makes from downtown. I'll get my treys elsewhere. --Tardy

Kris Humphries, Brooklyn Nets: His minutes, shots and opportunity for success will drop sharply on the new-look Nets. There are better double-double options out there who have upside. --Carpenter
[/h][h=3]Center[/h][h=3]
Andrew Bynum, Philadelphia 76ers: I'd like to remind everyone that last season everything went right for Bynum and he still finished 14th on the Player Rater, so the assumption that he's a sure-fire first-round pick seems a little premature. Also, it's worth noting that last season was the first time in five years that he played in more than 80 percent of his games, and his field goal percentage fell off a cliff in April and the playoffs. He's an elite center, yes, but he's not worth a first round pick. --Landman

Dwight Howard, Los Angeles Lakers: We don't know when he'll be back on the court, let alone at 100 percent. Then he's going to be in an offense where he's no longer the No. 1 option. Then we don't know if his head is going to be on straight (though he is in a contract year). If I'm the Lakers? I ease him in slowly, knowing this is about the playoffs. Oh, and he still is the worst free throw shooter (.491 last year) in the league … yes, even worse than Griffin. --Cregan

Glen Davis, Orlando Magic: Davis averaged 19.0 points and 9.2 rebounds in the playoff loss to the Indiana Pacers this spring, but I'm thinking his regular-season numbers as a Magic starter (15.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals) are more realistic for this season. The PF/C dual eligibility is nice, but I'm just not interested in a big who doesn't block shots and probably will fall short of 50 percent shooting. --Tardy

[/h]

HacheMan · Oct 20, 2012

Offseason movement roundup

Whose fantasy values changed for the better or worse in new uniforms?

By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

The biggest stories of the offseason surrounded superstars shifting teams, and an abundance of players are in new uniforms this season. Let's take a look at whose value will increase, whose will decrease and who will see mixed results for their new teams in 2012-13.

Movin' on up: Players whose value increases in their new homes

Arron Afflalo, SG, Orlando Magic: He received notoriety this offseason, as many criticized the fact that he was the best player the Magic received in the Dwight Howard deal. Lost amid that hubbub was that he's a steadily improving fantasy player who posted a career-high 15.2 points per game last season with excellent percentages. His efficiency might suffer a bit, but as the hands-down most athletic player on the perimeter for the Magic, his usage should increase significantly, and he should see a bump in points and 3-pointers.

Michael Beasley, SF, Phoenix Suns: He followed up his 19.2 points per game in '10-11 with a disappointing '11-12 season in which he averaged just 11.5 points on a career-low 44.5 percent from the floor in just 23.1 minutes per game for the Minnesota Timberwolves. But now he'll be asked to shoulder a major scoring load for the Suns, and if he can fend off Jared Dudley, he should see an uptick in minutes and touches. His peripheral stats are consistently mediocre but not awful (0.6 3s, 0.6 blocks, 0.7 steals per game for his career). He could flirt with 20 points per game on the Suns, as his scoring ability is unquestioned; he still averaged 23.9 points per 48 minutes last season despite his substandard overall numbers.

Goran Dragic, PG, Phoenix Suns: He might not improve on his starting numbers from last season (18 points, 8.4 assists, 1.8 3s, 1.8 steals, 49 percent from the floor, 83.9 percent from the stripe in 28 starts last season), but his overall numbers will see a massive jump now that he's been handed the keys to the Suns' offense. He could be a top-five point guard this season, and if he slips into the third round in drafts due to his lack of name recognition, don't pass him up.

Raymond Felton, PG, New York Knicks: I'm not a fan of his game and I know Mike D'Antoni is no longer in New York, but he has a bevy of options when distributing the ball, a tough coach who should keep him accountable in Mike Woodson and Jason Kidd to push him to perform. If you ignore his terrible shooting, last season's averages of 6.5 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.0 3s are respectable, so I'm expecting him to see a boost in value moving back to New York.

Chris Kaman, C, Dallas Mavericks: He had middling overall numbers after a first half in which he shared time with Emeka Okafor and was benched amid trade rumors. But his second-half numbers (14.8 points, 8 rebounds, 2 blocks per game) were excellent, and he'll have value as the only legitimate center on the Mavericks' roster. His career-low 44.6 percent from the floor should move closer to his career mark of 48.1 percent, as last season was the first in three years that he shot less than 60 percent on shots at the rim.

Andrei Kirilenko, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves: The reigning Euroleague MVP averaged 14.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.9 blocks and 1.5 steals overseas, and many commented that he seemed rejuvenated after leaving Utah. He'll bring that momentum to Minnesota and see plenty of minutes at small forward with only Chase Budinger to fend off, and he'll once again be a top source of steals and blocks, especially at that position.

O.J. Mayo, SG, Dallas Mavericks: His numbers evaporated while he was coming off the bench for the Memphis Grizzlies, but this is a player who averaged 18 points, 1.8 3s and 1.2 steals while shooting 84.5 percent from the line in his first two seasons as a starter. Even if he doesn't quite reclaim that glory, his numbers are set for a huge rebound now that he's starting again for a Mavericks team in need of offensive firepower from the wing.

Jason Richardson, SG, Philadelphia 76ers: Last season was the first in three years that he didn't average more than two 3s per game, although he did average 1.9, to go along with 1 steal and 0.4 blocks per game. He seems older, but he's 31 and set to start at shooting guard in Philadelphia. With Andrew Bynum soaking up attention in the middle, and Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner both capable of handling the ball alongside him, he should see plenty of open looks and be among the league leaders in 3-pointers.

Mo Williams, PG/SG, Utah Jazz: He should start at point guard in Utah and should see his assists increase significantly now that he's not playing alongside Chris Paul. Starting point guards are a valuable commodity in fantasy hoops, especially when they have shooting guard eligibility like Williams does, so he's poised to provide excellent value in the later rounds.

Bad move: Players whose value decreases in their new homes

Ray Allen, SG, Miami Heat: His 14.2 points per game average in 2011-12 was his lowest since his rookie season, and the scoring opportunities won't increase playing alongside LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. What will increase is his number of open looks, and despite the likely shrinkage in his all-around stats, Allen could lead the league in 3s.

Steve Nash, PG, Los Angeles Lakers: He has never played with someone who needs the ball in his hands like Kobe Bryant does, and the last time he played alongside another superstar was in Dallas with Dirk Nowitzki. That also was the last time he averaged fewer than 9.7 assists per game, and any time a player's primary fantasy contribution is chopped down, his value suffers. Nash will still average between seven and nine dimes per game, post efficient percentages, and likely see an increase in 3s with a stronger supporting cast and more open looks, but you own him for the assists, and they're going to diminish.

Dwight Howard, C, Los Angeles Lakers: We've never seen him come off a serious injury, and missing the preseason will affect his conditioning and chemistry with his new team. He'll no longer be the first option for his team offensively, and it's difficult to predict how he'll respond to a new role. Although his rebounds and blocks still will be elite, expect a dip in offensive production as well as his typical fantasy-killing free throw percentage.

Andre Iguodala, SF, Denver Nuggets: He will have fewer opportunities for the offense to run through him with Ty Lawson and Andre Miller around and several players who can create their own shots on the roster, so expect a dip in assists to go along with his steadily declining but still excellent steal numbers. There simply are more mouths to feed in Denver, whereas he was the alpha dog in Philly.

Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors: He can be incredible, but unless Toronto eschews Jose Calderon, he's unlikely to see an uptick in minutes. Dragic's numbers when Lowry went down last season illustrate the fact that Houston is a team conducive to productive point guard stats, while Toronto is a team focused on defense. Love his talent; don't love the fact he's sharing a role with a point guard who averaged 33.9 minutes per game last season.

Mixed results

Andrew Bynum, C, Philadelphia 76ers: He undoubtedly will see more touches and legitimately could score 22 to 25 points per game in Philadelphia, but without Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant drawing defenders off him, he'll see constant double-teams. This will hurt his efficiency, but his counting stats of points, boards and rebounds will remain elite and likely increase. Off the court, he is coming off getting knee injections in Germany, and will have to prove capable of sustaining his intensity and focus throughout the season as the focal point of his team. No more taking plays off for Bynum, and although he'll still be a top fantasy center, I wouldn't be surprised if his field goal percentage dropped.

Jarrett Jack, PG, Golden State Warriors: His role will depend on Stephen Curry's status, although he'll have value either way. Unless Curry's ankles are miraculously rejuvenated (he attempted just 1.3 shots at the rim per game last season), Jack is the only player in the Warriors' backcourt with legitimate slashing abilities. He should produce solid scoring and increased field goal percentage when playing alongside Curry, and if Curry is once again plagued by the ankle, Jack is a competent point guard who will provide six-plus assists per game when asked to run the offense.

Ryan Anderson, PF, New Orleans Hornets: He undoubtedly benefited from Dwight Howard's presence in Orlando, but now in New Orleans, he'll be paired with rookie Anthony Davis in the frontcourt and attract significantly more defensive attention. He'll likely be asked to vary his offensive arsenal and might not have the luxury of jacking up 6.9 3-point attempts per game, so his scoring and rebounding could improve but the 3s could dip.

Joe Johnson, SG, Brooklyn Nets: He will have difficulty getting back to his days of five-plus assists per game playing alongside Deron Williams, although he should be more efficient sharing the backcourt with such a proficient ball handler.

Lou Williams, PG, Atlanta Hawks: His 27.3 points per 48 minutes average ranked 22nd in the league last season, ahead of players such as Monta Ellis and Manu Ginobili, as he was asked to focus on one task: come in off the bench and score. This could be problematic for both him and Jason Terry (SG, Boston Celtics), who are accustomed to being on the floor with lower-usage players and facing second-team defenses, and will be forced to adjust if they're in the starting lineup.

Jeremy Lin, PG, Houston Rockets: He will never consistently post the numbers he put up his first month of starting for the Knicks, but he should post numbers similar to his overall averages from last season: 15 points and six assists with decent 3s and nice steals. That will make his move to Houston a relative wash.

Ramon Sessions, PG, Charlotte Bobcats: He parlayed his success with the Lakers into a starting role with the Bobcats, and like Lin, he will have trouble replicating the numbers he posted when he was at his best last season. But he easily could post better overall numbers in a full season in a starting role.

Notable offseason player movement

Player	Former Team	New Team
Arron Afflalo	Denver Nuggets	Orlando Magic
Ray Allen	Boston Celtics	Miami Heat
Ryan Anderson	Orlando Magic	New Orleans Hornets
Trevor Ariza	New Orleans Hornets	Washington Wizards
Omer Asik	Chicago Bulls	Houston Rockets
D.J. Augustin	Charlotte Bobcats	Indiana Pacers
Gustavo Ayon	New Orleans Hornets	Orlando Magic
Jerryd Bayless	Toronto Raptors	Memphis Grizzlies
Michael Beasley	Minnesota Timberwolves	Phoenix Suns
Andray Blatche	Washington Wizards	Brooklyn Nets
Elton Brand	Philadelphia 76ers	Dallas Mavericks
Aaron Brooks	Guangdong Southern Tigers	Sacramento Kings
Chase Budinger	Houston Rockets	Minnesota Timberwolves
Andrew Bynum	Los Angeles Lakers	Philadelphia 76ers
Marcus Camby	Houston Rockets	New York Knicks
Darren Collison	Indiana Pacers	Dallas Mavericks
Jamal Crawford	Portland Trail Blazers	Los Angeles Clippers
Samuel Dalembert	Houston Rockets	Milwaukee Bucks
Carlos Delfino	Milwaukee Bucks	Houston Rockets
Toney Douglas	New York Knicks	Houston Rockets
Goran Dragic	Houston Rockets	Phoenix Suns
Gerald Green	Brooklyn Nets	Indiana Pacers
Raymond Felton	Portland Trail Blazers	New York Knicks
Landry Fields	New York Knicks	Toronto Raptors
Randy Foye	Los Angeles Clippers	Utah Jazz
Ben Gordon	Detroit Pistons	Charlotte Bobcats
Al Harrington	Denver Nuggets	Orlando Magic
Devin Harris	Utah Jazz	Atlanta Hawks
Brendan Haywood	Dallas Mavericks	Charlotte Bobcats
Grant Hill	Phoenix Suns	Los Angeles Clippers
Kirk Hinrich	Washington Wizards	Chicago Bulls
Dwight Howard	Orlando Magic	Los Angeles Lakers
Andre Iguodala	Philadelphia 76ers	Denver Nuggets
Jarrett Jack	New Orleans Hornets	Golden State Warriors
Antawn Jamison	Cleveland Cavaliers	Los Angeles Lakers
James Johnson	Toronto Raptors	Sacramento Kings
Joe Johnson	Atlanta Hawks	Brooklyn Nets
Wesley Johnson	Minnesota Timberwolves	Phoenix Suns
Chris Kaman	New Orleans Hornets	Dallas Mavericks
Jason Kidd	Dallas Mavericks	New York Knicks
Andrei Kirilenko	CSKA Moscow	Minnesota Timberwolves
Kyle Korver	Chicago Bulls	Atlanta Hawks
Carl Landry	New Orleans Hornets	Golden State Warriors
Courtney Lee	Houston Rockets	Boston Celtics
Rashard Lewis	Washington Wizards	Miami Heat
Jeremy Lin	New York Knicks	Houston Rockets
Kyle Lowry	Houston Rockets	Toronto Raptors
Corey Maggette	Charlotte Bobcats	Detroit Pistons
O.J. Mayo	Memphis Grizzlies	Dallas Mavericks
Jodie Meeks	Philadelphia 76ers	Los Angeles Lakers
C.J. Miles	Utah Jazz	Cleveland Cavaliers
Anthony Morrow	Brooklyn Nets	Atlanta Hawks
Steve Nash	Phoenix Suns	Los Angeles Lakers
Lamar Odom	Dallas Mavericks	Los Angeles Clippers
Emeka Okafor	New Orleans Hornets	Washington Wizards
Jason Richardson	Orlando Magic	Philadelphia 76ers
Brandon Rush	Indiana Pacers	Golden State Warriors
Luis Scola	Houston Rockets	Phoenix Suns
Ramon Sessions	Los Angeles Lakers	Charlotte Bobcats
Jason Terry	Dallas Mavericks	Boston Celtics
Gerald Wallace	Portland Trail Blazers	Brooklyn Nets
C.J. Watson	Chicago Bulls	Brooklyn Nets
Lou Williams	Philadelphia 76ers	Atlanta Hawks
Marvin Williams	Atlanta Hawks	Utah Jazz
Mo Williams	Los Angeles Clippers	Utah Jazz
Dorell Wright	Golden State Warriors	Philadelphia 76ers
Nick Young	Los Angeles Clippers	Philadelphia 76ers

HacheMan · Oct 20, 2012

[h=1]Helpful, hurtful, empty stats[/h][h=3]Some players' production can make or break fantasy teams[/h]By Neil Tardy | Special to ESPN.com

This isn't about Dwight Howard -- not entirely, anyway. But there's no better place to start.

I'm not saying I'll never draft Howard or make an effort to acquire his stats in an auction. But it's highly likely that, wherever I'm drafting or with whatever I have remaining in my budget, I'll find an alternative. I don't expect to have Howard this season.

Yes, this about Howard's free throw shooting, but not entirely. This is about overall strategy and how my approach to fantasy basketball has evolved through years of participating -- and sometimes getting my head handed to me -- in numerous high-level leagues.

Over his first eight NBA seasons, Howard has made 58.8 percent of his free throws. Just as significant for fantasy owners, he has done this while averaging 9.2 attempts per game.

There are other numbers, of course. For his career, Howard averages 18.4 points, 13 rebounds, 2.2 blocks and 57.7 percent shooting from the field. While the positives clearly outnumber the negative, to me, they don't outweigh it. Howard's move to the Los Angeles Lakers and his ongoing recovery from back surgery aren't issues. I just don't want to deal with that foul shooting.

Likewise, I don't want to deal with Blake Griffin's foul shooting. Or even Rajon Rondo's.

I'll let the ESPN.com Player Rater illustrate my point. Sort the ratings by shooting percentages and look for the largest negative numbers. Here's a selection of biggies from the 2011-12 season:

FG%: Kemba Walker (-2.86), Antawn Jamison (-1.98), Ricky Rubio (-1.81), Deron Williams (-1.71), Brandon Jennings (-1.38)

FT%: Howard (-8.28), Griffin (-6.50), Josh Smith (-2.68), Rondo (-2.22), Andre Iguodala (-2.05)

It isn't that I'm swearing off these players. Last season, I won a 16-team league where I selected Smith 20th overall (though I was well down in the standings through January when Smith was barely 50 percent from the line). Certainly I won't pass on Williams because he shot 40.7 percent last season. I expect he'll be much closer to his career 45.5 percent mark while leading what should be a vastly improved Brooklyn Nets team. As much as possible though, I do want to limit these negatives.

Along with limiting the negatives, I want what I'll call sneaky-helpful stats. It's no secret that Ty Lawson was one of the top players in fantasy last season. But while he helps you almost across the board, his single biggest fantasy attribute is his shooting. Lawson connected at a rate of 48.8 percent last season. Among starting point guards, only the amazingly accurate Steve Nash (53.2 percent) was better from the field. And only Tony Parker (48) and Chris Paul (47.8) were within a percentage point of Lawson.

Again, I'll use the Player Rater as a visual aid. Narrowing the list to PG-eligible players, here are the most significant plus numbers in FG%: Nash (2.26), Lawson (1.39), Parker (1.25), Paul (1.16), Kyrie Irving (0.71).

Now let's flip it around. We all prioritize blocks and rebounding when selecting our bigs, and I'm not suggesting otherwise, but if I can get some solid foul shooting as well, I'll gladly take it. Back to the Player Rater for some significant plus numbers in FT% among PF- and C-eligible players: Kevin Love (1.99), Andrea Bargnani (1.65), Kevin Garnett (1.54), LaMarcus Aldridge (1.20), Nikola Pekovic (-0.13).

I list Pekovic because his playing time -- a reserve early last season, sidelined later on -- skews his Player Rater standing. As a starter last season, Pek averaged 15.4 points, 8.5 rebounds and 74.2 percent from the line on a not insignificant 4.5 attempts. Only a handful of true centers (Marc Gasol, Greg Monroe and Roy Hibbert) approached 75 percent foul shooting last season. Pekovic is big and physical, but he is also quite skilled. The 26-year-old will never block many shots (a 1.0 average might be the most we can expect), but I believe he offers considerable fantasy value.

Finally, there's another type of player I avoid. It's not that these players hurt you in any category or that they don't offer some decent stats. The problem is these players don't really help you in any category. No one really excels in every fantasy category, but even if it's only one, I want something special somewhere.

Some names and numbers from 2011-12:

Carlos Boozer: 53.2 FG%, 69.3 FT%, 0.0 3PM, 8.5 rpg, 1.9 apg, 0.4 bpg, 1.0 spg, 15.0 ppg
MarShon Brooks: 42.8 FG%, 76.4 FT%, 0.8 3PM, 3.6 rpg, 2.3 apg, 0.3 bpg, 0.9 spg, 12.6 ppg
DeMar DeRozan: 42.2 FG%, 81.0 FT%, 0.4 3PM, 3.3 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.3 bpg, 0.8 spg, 16.7 ppg
Lou Williams: 40.7 FG%, 81.2 FT%, 1.3 3PM, 2.5 rpg, 3.5 apg, 0.3 bpg, 0.8 spg, 14.9 ppg
Mo Williams: 42.6 FG%, 90.0 FT%, 1.8 3PM, 1.9 rpg, 3.1 apg, 0.1 bpg, 1.0 spg, 13.2 ppg

With Joe Johnson on board, Brooks is slated for a reserve role with the Nets this season. Mo Williams is set to start for the Utah Jazz. Same for Lou Williams with the Atlanta Hawks. And some dude who looks like me put DeRozan on his list of sleepers. But just for a moment, play along and consider these numbers in a vacuum:

Boozer averaged 8.5 boards last season, but so what? Twenty players had a higher per-game average. It's a solid number, as is Boozer's 53.2 percent shooting, but there is nothing extraordinary here. I'd much prefer, say, Kris Humphries, who gets even more boards while providing hustle stats.

I include Brooks to make the point that, even if he did get the minutes to produce those numbers again this season, I don't find them in any way useful. Brooks didn't hurt you anywhere last season, but where did he really help?

How about Mo? Sure, 1.8 3-pointers per game is swell, but it's not extraordinary. Nineteen players drained more treys each game last season. Thirty-nine others finished with at least 1.6 3s. And while Williams went 90 percent from the line in 2011-12, he averaged just 1.5 attempts.

But this isn't about Mo Williams any more than it's about Howard. There are helpful stats. Then there are harmful stats and empty stats. Everyone seeks the former and avoids the latter, probably in that order. For me, though, it's the opposite. Wherever possible, I'm going to pass on the harmful and empty stats, first and foremost.

HacheMan · Oct 22, 2012

With the NBA season just a few weeks away and fantasy drafts in full swing, it's time for another edition of Love/Hate, fantasy hoops-style.

For the uninitiated, here's how the whole Love/Hate thing works: It's all about perceptions, expectations and reputation. Those players whom I think will outperform our expectations end up on my "Love" list, while those who I think will fail to live up to their billing end up on the "Hate" side. I also consider this my personal list of targets and do-not-draft players. It's a simple premise, but don't confuse these lists for something they aren't.

You'll find Blake Griffin on my "Hate" list below, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't welcome him on my squad with open arms if the price was right. The problem is, based on his going rate in fantasy drafts, for me the price almost certainly will not be right.

Similarly, you'll find on Kenneth Faried on my "Love" list below. Does that mean I'm taking him over someone like Greg Monroe, who is not on the list? Of course not. I love Faried for a variety of reasons, but I love him mostly because he's a potential fourth-round value who can be found in the sixth round. I consider Monroe to be fairly valued, and therefore you won't find him on either list.

This premise also works for those so-called sleepers or breakout players who aren't exactly sleepers anymore. You'll likely find Derrick Favors on every sleeper list available on the Internet, and more than a few people are calling Kyrie Irving and Ty Lawson breakout candidates. Problem is, everyone is talking about them, and absolutely no one is sleeping on them. Still, you'll see that they are guys I love. Why? Well, I think they'll live up to the hype despite the lofty expectations that have been placed upon them this season.

[h=3]Players I Love[/h]
Kenneth Faried, PF, Denver Nuggets: Making a repeat appearance in this space for the second straight year, the "Manimal" was one of my favorite rookies in 2011-12 with 11.7 points, 8.4 boards, 0.9 steals and 1.0 blocks in only 25.2 minutes per game after the All-Star break. With more minutes on the way in 2012-13, Faried is primed to break out in a big way.

Ty Lawson, PG/SG, Denver Nuggets: Lawson may have finished 19th on our Player Rater last season, but for some reason he's still not considered an "elite" point guard by many in the fantasy community. That's likely to change this season as Lawson is set to deliver his second consecutive top-20 fantasy season.

Goran Dragic, PG, Phoenix Suns: Maybe I thought that people would be more excited about a guy who posted 18.0 points, 8.4 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.8 3-pointers in 28 starts last year, but it sure seems like folks have been hesitant to pull the trigger on Dragic in the third round this year. He was always a per-minute stud prior to his breakout last season, so I'm anticipating big things from the 26-year-old in his first season as a full-time starter.

Marcin Gortat, C, Phoenix Suns: All right, Dragic isn't quite Steve Nash, but he'll still be able to find the big man in the paint. And since when do rebounds and blocks depend on point guard play?

Kyrie Irving, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers: Just thought I should mention that I agree with the consensus that Kyrie makes the jump into elite fantasy status this season. This kid is the real deal.

Andre Iguodala, SF/SG, Denver Nuggets: Iggy has been underrated in fantasy circles for a few years now thanks to his somewhat pedestrian scoring numbers, but he'll be able to put up more points in Denver's fast paced offense this season. He'll be drafted after guys like Paul Pierce, Danny Granger and Joe Johnson, but I'm betting he has the best fantasy season of the group.

Anthony Davis, PF, New Orleans Hornets: I'll be absolutely shocked if Davis doesn't finish in the top five in the league in blocks as a rookie. In fact, I'm expecting him to compete with Serge Ibaka for the league lead.

Glen Davis, PF/C, Orlando Magic: Everyone's talking about Arron Afflalo in Orlando, but don't sleep on Davis, who averaged 16.4 points, 8.8 boards and 1.4 steals during the month of April with Dwight Howard sidelined last season. Someone has to score and rebound in Orlando.

JaVale McGee, C, Denver Nuggets: Just because he stars in blooper highlight reels on the Internet doesn't mean that he can't be a big asset to your fantasy team. McGee is one of the most productive big men in the league on a per-minute basis, which bodes well for his fantasy value with more minutes on the horizon in 2012-13.

Mo Williams, PG, Utah Jazz: Mo needs to stay healthy, but if he can, he'll provide nice value as a midround fantasy point guard. Don't forget, he's been quite productive as a starter during his career, with averages of 15.4 points, 5.7 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.5 3-pointers in 432 career starts.

Derrick Favors, PF, Utah Jazz: Anyone who has seen Favors play can tell that the 21-year-old has an extremely bright future. He'll have to find a way to get enough minutes in a crowded frontcourt, but remember, this is a kid who averaged 9.4 points, 7.9 rebounds, 0.7 steals and 1.1 blocks in only 22.8 minutes in 34 games after the All-Star break. With per-minute numbers like those, the Jazz won't be able to keep him in a reserve role for long.

Ersan Ilyasova, SF/PF, Milwaukee Bucks: One of the more underrated players in the league, Ilyasova averaged a super-productive 16.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.1 3-pointers in just 30.8 minutes per game after the All-Star break last season. Incredibly versatile, with the ability to contribute in nearly every fantasy category, Ilyasova makes for a great pickup in this season's drafts.

Louis Williams, PG/SG, Atlanta Hawks: He has been a per-minute warrior for most of his career, and fantasy owners should be pumped that he'll likely earn starter's minutes in Atlanta. If he's able to secure 30-plus minutes per game, he'll do big things as a scorer, 3-point shooter and steal artist.

Raymond Felton, PG, New York Knicks: Felton certainly isn't going to average 17.1 points, 9.0 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.6 3-pointers like he did during his last stint in New York, but he's going to be much better than the 11.4 points, 6.5 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.0 3-pointers he posted in Portland last season. I'm expecting something in between the two extremes, which would make him a quality midround fantasy point guard.

Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers: Rookie point guards have had quite a nice run in recent seasons, with players like Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans (he played point that season at least), Brandon Jennings, John Wall, Ricky Rubio and Kyrie Irving all having success in their first professional seasons. Now, I'm not saying that Lillard is at the level of the aforementioned players, but he has an incredible opportunity as the unquestioned starter at the point in Portland.

Wesley Matthews, SG/SF, Portland Trail Blazers: With Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford gone, Matthews will have a huge year as the only proven scorer in a young (but exciting) Blazers backcourt.

DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, Sacramento Kings: My favorite stat from last season: According to Hoopdata.com, Cousins averaged a league-high 7.3 shots at the rim last season but converted on just 56.7 percent of those attempts. With that many opportunities so close to the rim, Cousins' 44.8 percent shooting from the floor is bound to go up. Cousins has first-round upside in fantasy leagues, but he can currently be found in the late second or early third rounds due to the aforementioned field goal percentage issues.

Paul George, SF/SG, Indiana Pacers: George and Nicholas Batum are two of my favorite targets when the draft gets to picks 40-50. Neither are quite household names yet, but they both offer a ton of upside with tremendous statistical diversity.

O.J. Mayo, SG, Dallas Mavericks: Only two years removed from posting 17 points with 1.2 steals and 1.7 3-pointers, Mayo gets new life in Dallas where he should provide a nice return on investment in the mid to late rounds.

Michael Beasley, SF, Phoenix Suns: Sure, Beasley has his problems, but don't forget that this is a guy who has averaged 16.7 points, 6.1 boards, 0.9 steals and 0.7 blocks as a starter in his career (177 starts). Beasley has been given the green light to shoot by head coach Alvin Gentry, which can only be a good sign for his fantasy value.

Omer Asik, C, Houston Rockets: Asik doesn't offer much on the offensive end, but he's a terrific defender who put up some stunning per-minute numbers for the Chicago Bulls last season. With 5.3 rebounds, 0.5 steals and 1.0 blocks in only 14.7 minutes per game last season, fantasy owners should be excited about Asik's prospects as a starter this year.

Jonas Valanciunas, C, Toronto Raptors: Valanciunas is only 20 years old, so he'll undoubtedly go through some growing pains in his rookie season, but the kid has loads of talent and upside which makes him a fantastic late-round gamble in fantasy drafts.

[h=3]Players I Hate[/h]
Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers: In theory, Blake's athleticism should eventually lead to some steals and blocks on the defensive end, but after two full seasons, he's averaging a disappointing 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocks per game. That, along with his subpar free throw shooting (52.1 percent), makes Griffin a player who's more style than substance in the fantasy game. That said, he's incredibly fun to own in fantasy leagues, so be sure to have the proper strategy if you plan on selecting him early.

Dwight Howard, C, Lakers: Don't get me wrong, Howard still does a lot of things well (points, boards, blocks, FG percentage), but even if he is 100 percent healthy, he's not going to be the No. 1 offensive option in Los Angeles, and he's no longer the most dominant shot-blocker in the game. With that in mind, I just can't justify drafting him in the first or second round when he is far and away the worst fantasy free throw shooter in the league.

Ryan Anderson, PF, New Orleans Hornets: Anderson is still going to be a great option for points, 3-pointers and free throw percentage in New Orleans, but I just don't see him duplicating the 16.1 points, 7.7 boards and 2.7 3-pointers he posted last year.

Eric Gordon, SG, New Orleans Hornets: He can't help your fantasy team if he can't stay on the court, and Gordon has played in just 65 percent of his team's games in his four-year career. Oh, and he's already dealing with more knee issues in the preseason. No thanks!

Danilo Gallinari, SF/PF, Denver Nuggets: Gallinari is a dynamic fantasy player when healthy, but he's dangerously close to earning the "injury-prone" label after dealing with various ailments over the past few seasons. And even if he manages to stay on the court, will the addition of Andre Iguodala cut into his touches?

Arron Afflalo, SG, Orlando Magic: Good players on bad teams are typically fantasy gold, and I actually think Afflalo will average career highs in points and 3-pointers, but I worry about his ability to produce in multiple categories. His field goal percentage is sure to drop as he'll command more attention from opposing defenses, and he's never been a great steals guy despite being a solid defender. Everyone seems to be labeling him a "sleeper," but I'm not going to reach for a guy who will only help me in points, 3-pointers and free throw percentage.

Tyreke Evans, PG/SG/SF, Sacramento Kings: As a former Tyreke supporter, it pains me to list him here, but I just can't ignore his pedestrian numbers after Isaiah Thomas joined the starting lineup last season. Evans wasn't terrible with 15.6 points, 4.4 boards, 4.1 assists and 1.2 steals per game as a small forward, but that's nowhere near the 20/5/5 he posted as a rookie.

Manu Ginobili, SG, San Antonio Spurs: Few can match Manu's productivity on a per-minute basis, but that doesn't help too much when he's seeing only 23-25 minutes per game. Head coach Gregg Popovich is notorious for resting his aging stars, and that doesn't figure to change as Manu enters the season at age 35.

Tim Duncan, PF/C, San Antonio Spurs: see Ginobili, Manu. Let's take a look at Timmy's minutes per game over the past 5 seasons: 34.0, 33.6, 31.3, 28.4, 28.2. Notice a trend? Duncan is so efficient on a per-minute basis that he's been able to hold onto some of his value in fantasy leagues, but how much longer will the 36-year-old with 15 years of NBA mileage continue to produce at such a high level?

[h=1]2012-13 Love/Hate list[/h][h=3]Plenty of Nuggets worth watching; be wary of veteran Spurs, Howard, Griffin[/h]
By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com
Luis Scola, PF, Phoenix Suns: Scola should be able to produce as a scorer and rebounder in Phoenix, but his supporting numbers leave a lot to be desired. For his career, he has averaged just 0.7 steals and 0.3 blocks per game. He's a fine selection if you can get him late enough, but don't reach.

HacheMan · Oct 24, 2012

Lopez, Brand, Lowry gain in ADP

By Neil Tardy | Special to ESPN.com

It might be hyperbole to call Thursday's Sacramento Kings-Los Angeles Lakers tilt the most important exhibition game in NBA history, but fantasy owners should definitely keep tabs on this one. That's because we'll learn -- based on coach Keith Smart's starting lineup for the night -- whether Marcus Thornton will actually be a reserve when the regular season starts.

Despite averaging 18.7 points, 2.1 3-pointers and 1.4 steals in 2011-12, Thornton has come off the bench in all but one game in October. Although Cowbell Kingdom makes a solid case for Thornton as a sixth man, fantasy owners have our own priorities. Thornton averaged 35 minutes as a starter last season, and it's just tough to imagine him seeing that amount of playing time coming off the bench.

I'm definitely concerned over Thornton's status, but I'm not panicking. He remains a key piece for the Kings. If he is a reserve, I'll be bargain hunting for him in my drafts this weekend. How can you determine whether Thornton is a bargain? That's personal opinion, of course, but you can support your viewpoint by consulting the ESPN.com Live Draft Results. This page displays the cumulative activity of all fantasy hoops drafts and auctions in ESPN.com leagues. As of Wednesday, Thornton's average draft position (ADP) has slipped to 63.5, while his auction value is down to 9.7. Expect those numbers to move, one way or another, after Thursday.

If Thornton is indeed a Kings reserve to begin the regular season, I still believe he'll see around 30 minutes a night, and thus should be able to top 15 points and 1.5 triples. With that -- coupled with the potential for a return to the starting lineup -- I think Thornton becomes a good value after about pick 80.

Here are some more players who caught my eye in the Live Draft Results.

[h=3]Bandwagon Watch: Piling on ...[/h]
Courtney Lee, SG, Boston Celtics (118.6 average draft position, up 21.4 spots in the past seven days): The former Houston Rocket is expected to start at shooting guard to open the season. Given his potential to accumulate 3s and steals, I can't criticize fantasy owners for pouncing on Lee late in drafts. But with Jason Terry primed to finish games -- and Avery Bradley returning eventually -- Lee isn't a flier of choice for me.

Elton Brand, PF, Dallas Mavericks (105.6 ADP, up 12.3 spots): Brand's rise of course corresponds with the drop in Dirk Nowitzki's draft stock (25.1 ADP, down 9.6). Nowitzki could be sidelined well into December, so Brand seems like a decent value here. But don't expect too much from a guy who turns 34 in March.

Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors (61.1 ADP, up 9.1 spots): Lowry is zooming up draft boards -- while holding steady at 11.9 in average auction value -- but he still seems like a bargain. I'm not sure if fantasy owners expect Jose Calderon to drain his minutes, or if they're just overlooking how good Lowry was before his 2011-12 season was cut short. No worries here though. Depending on my point guard situation, I wouldn't hesitate to take Lowry 10 picks ahead of this ADP.

Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets (51.3 ADP, up 7.4 spots): Preseason games don't count, but it still matters, especially for a player like Lopez. After missing most of last season, the 7-footer has looked terrific with the relocated and revamped Nets. In his first four exhibition outings, Lopez averaged 18.5 points, 1.2 blocks and -- most significantly -- 9.0 rebounds. Note the strong trends with Lopez and Lowry. You'll likely need to pick ahead of the ADP or spend a little more to get them.

O.J. Mayo, SG, Dallas Mavericks (85.3 ADP, up 6.5 spots): In retrospect, I feel a bit silly writing this and not even mentioning Mayo. I understand he'll play more in Big D, but Mayo is just the type of player -- a few points, a few 3s and not much else -- I avoid in fantasy. Keep in mind that in his first two seasons with the Memphis Grizzlies, when he averaged 18.5 points in 2008-09 and 17.5 points in 2009-10, Mayo played 38 minutes a night. Even as a Mavs starter, I can't imagine him seeing that much time this season.

[h=3]... and Filing Off[/h]
Kevin Love, PF/C, Minnesota Timberwolves (17.2 ADP, down 13.5 spots): Including this just to follow up on last week's ADP update. It's been a full seven days since Love's injury became public, so we have a good idea of the fantasy impact. As of this writing, Love is still being taken ahead of bigs like DeMarcus Cousins (18.7 ADP), Pau Gasol (20.1), Blake Griffin (20.6), Marc Gasol (22.6) and Serge Ibaka (23.6). With some time to think about it, my guess is Love won't fall much further.

Rodney Stuckey, PG/SG, Detroit Pistons (99.5 ADP, down 8.8 spots): I've touted Stuckey as a late-round or cheap auction pick, but I have mixed feelings about the fact that he's apparently going to be more active from beyond the arc this season. My case for Stuckey is simple: The Pistons just don't have a lot of scoring talent. However, Stuckey was only 31.7 percent (33-of-104) from downtown last season, and that was a career best. This preseason, he started just 3-of-15 in 3-pointers before swishing 4 of 7 against the Charlotte Bobcats on Oct. 20. I still believe that Stuckey will average closer to 20 points a night than 15 this season, but I don't want any part of it if he's struggling to shoot 40 percent from the field.

Andre Iguodala, SG/SF (37.9 ADP, down 5.7 spots), and Kenneth Faried, PF, Denver Nuggets (71.0 ADP, down 5.4 spots): We'll take these two together. While Brian McKitish has much love for most of the Nuggets, Iguodala and Faried (as well as JaVale McGee) are sliding in ESPN.com drafts and auctions. I imagine Denver's depth is making fantasy owners wonder if anyone other than Ty Lawson will see big minutes. While I share those concerns about McGee, I agree with McKitish's point about Iguodala: His new offense is a mile-high step up from his old one. The Philadelphia 76ers were 24th in pace last season, while the Nuggets were second. With those extra possessions, Iguodala should easily exceed his career averages in scoring (15.3 points) and 3-pointers (0.9 per game), and perhaps even approach 2.0 steals. I do expect a decline in shooting percentage, but I'm not all that worried about a sharp drop in his assist rate (4.9 dimes per game for his career). Players who are able and willing passers will always get helpers. As for Faried, while I suppose the Nuggets could go small sometimes and play Danilo Gallinari at power forward, Al Harrington's departure removes the Manimal's major impediment for minutes. Also keep in mind that when Faried averaged 11.0 points, 8.2 boards, 0.9 blocks and 0.8 steals in 39 starts as a rookie, he did all that in just 25 minutes per game. The kid will be just fine.

HacheMan · Oct 24, 2012

[h=1]'12-13 Fantasy hoops mock draft 2[/h][h=3]How far do Kevin Love, Dirk Nowitzki fall after injuries?[/h]By Tom Carpenter | ESPN.com

With just a week left before the NBA season tips off, we fantasy junkies have honed our drafting skills by taking part in myriad drafts -- both mock and real -- so we have a solid idea of whom we are targeting and when. With that in mind, we brought together our fantasy hoops experts for one more mock on Oct. 23 to give you a look at how we see things panning out as you prepare for your drafts.

While this is dubbed a "mock," we are actually going to play out this league for real, which helps lend some extra credence to our picks, because we know they count for real. This is a head-to-head category league (points, assists, 3s, steals, rebounds, blocks, FG% and FT%), which means we play one opponent each week and receive a win for each category in which we outperform him. Teams with the best W-L-T record at the end of our scheduled regular season will compete in the playoffs. Knowing your scoring system is a critical part of constructing a winning team via your draft.

Below, you will find the thinking behind each of my picks, as well the thoughts of some my fellow competitors on their more intriguing picks.

[h=4]Round 1[/h]

Pick	Player	Team
1	Kevin Durant, OKC SF	Team Quintong
2	LeBron James, Mia SF	Team Karabell
3	Chris Paul, LAC PG	Team Brooks
4	Deron Williams, Bkn PG	Team Tardy
5	Dwyane Wade, Mia SG	Team Landman
6	Russell Westbrook, OKC PG	Team Carpenter
7	Josh Smith, Atl PF	Team Cregan
8	Kyrie Irving, Cle PG	Team Whitling
9	Andrew Bynum, Phi C	Team McKitish
10	Al Jefferson, Uta C	Team Allgood

While you can draft a championship squad from any spot in the draft, the middle is the best place to be, because you never have to reach for players. And quite often you can snag a guy when he slips a couple of spots. So, I was happy to be picking sixth overall, where Russell Westbrook was a no-brainer selection.

As a rookie, Kyrie Irving posted terrific stats across the board. You took him with the eighth overall pick. What are your expectations for his statistical production in Year 2? Specifically, do you think he will produce more like a point guard after averaging only 5.4 assists per game last season?

Josh Whitling: "I'm a sucker for stellar percentages, especially when they come from guards. Irving posted 46.9 and 87.2 percentages from the floor and stripe, respectively, as a rookie, with a solid number of attempts in both areas. According to hoopdata.com, he attempted a whopping 5.5 shots at the rim per game, making 60.4 percent of those attempts, so I don't predict a regression in his field goal percentage. If anything, I could see it rising as he continues to refine his jumper. His statistical floor should hover around his post-All Star numbers from last season: 19.0 points, 5.7 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 1.7 3-pointers and 1.3 steals per game. My expectation? I'm not banking on much of a jump in assists, maybe 6.0 per game but could easily see him averaging 21 points, 4 rebounds, 2 3s and 1.5 steals per game with those excellent percentages. If you draft him it's important to get cheap assists elsewhere, which I did by later selecting Kyle Lowry, Darren Collison and Greivis Vasquez. I also drafted Pau Gasol and Gordon Hayward, who provide excellent assist totals for non-point guards, because Irving won't provide the dominant assist numbers that fellow first-round point guards Chris Paul and Deron Williams do. But considering the fact this league doesn't count turnovers, it wasn't really a question for me to draft him eighth overall; the upside is tremendous, and he's providing me with a solid foundation in percentages, something I like to secure with my first overall pick."

[h=4]Round 2[/h]

Pick	Player	Team
11	Dwight Howard, LAL C	Team Allgood
12	Ty Lawson, Den PG	Team McKitish
13	Pau Gasol, LAL PF	Team Whitling
14	Kobe Bryant, LAL SG	Team Cregan
15	Kevin Love, Min PF	Team Carpenter
16	Serge Ibaka, OKC C	Team Landman
17	DeMarcus Cousins, Sac PF	Team Tardy
18	LaMarcus Aldridge, Por PF	Team Brooks
19	Marc Gasol, Mem C	Team Karabell
20	Rajon Rondo, Bos PG	Team Quintong

I probably would have passed on taking Love if this were a roto league, because his absence early on will limit his season-long totals. However, in this H2H format, he's going to be an absolute stud in my weekly battles as soon as he returns, making it worth the risk of waiting. This is a perfect example of how drafting a H2H team differs from drafting a roto team.

Serge Ibaka is the King of Blocks in the NBA, but he does little else. What was your thinking behind nabbing this one-category wonder with the 16th overall pick?

Seth Landman: "In fantasy, Serge Ibaka blocks shots better than anyone else does anything else, and because of that he managed to finish 11th on the Player Rater last season despite playing just 27 minutes per game. He's also played in every game each of the last two seasons. I think he's a relatively safe bet at this point, actually, and if his pick-and-pop game improves at all, he's got a chance to slide into the top 10."

[h=4]Round 3[/h]

Pick	Player	Team
21	Al Horford, Atl C	Team Quintong
22	Carmelo Anthony, NY SF	Team Karabell
23	Goran Dragic, Pho PG	Team Brooks
24	James Harden, OKC SG	Team Tardy
25	Greg Monroe, Det C	Team Landman
26	Rudy Gay, Mem SF	Team Carpenter
27	Brandon Jennings, Mil PG	Team Cregan
28	Blake Griffin, LAC PF	Team Whitling
29	Paul Millsap, Uta PF	Team McKitish
30	Steve Nash, LAL PG	Team Allgood

Typically, we find our sleepers in the middle or later rounds, but for some reason, people seem to be sleeping a bit on Gay this season. His well-rounded game is great in any format and small forward is relatively thin this season. Don't sleep on him in your drafts.

You took the leap on Goran Dragic in Round 3, so you obviously don't think his flash of success with the Houston Rockets last season was a fluke. It looks like he is pure upside in his new role leading the Phoenix Suns' offense. What do you think about his expected production this season and his value in this format?

Andrew Brooks: "I don't like to look a guy's per-minute stats, but even when he was a backup, he was super productive on the court. My goal was to attack assists and steals early and Dragic had the most upside of the point guards still on the board, which is why I took him so early. I'm banking on his assist numbers getting better (ESPN projects 7 per game and I'd be ecstatic with that), but at the very least I know the steals and 3s will be there. Not only that, I really don't believe in Kendall Marshall or any of the Suns' backups, so I expect Dragic to play a lot of minutes."

[h=4]Round 4[/h]

Pick	Player	Team
31	Monta Ellis, Mil PG	Team Allgood
32	Dirk Nowitzki, Dal PF	Team McKitish
33	Stephen Curry, GS PG	Team Whitling
34	Paul Pierce, Bos SF	Team Cregan
35	Paul George, Ind SG	Team Carpenter
36	Mike Conley, Mem PG	Team Landman
37	Anthony Davis, Nor PF	Team Tardy
38	Marcin Gortat, Pho C	Team Brooks
39	David Lee, GS PF	Team Karabell
40	Roy Hibbert, Ind C	Team Quintong

George is bursting at the seams with talent and has the ability to pile up points, 3s, steals, dimes and good percentages. Before the preseason, I felt he was poised to surpass Danny Granger as the Indiana Pacers' primary scoring option. I'm even more confident of that coming to fruition now that Granger is having trouble getting healthy.

You took a chance on Dirk Nowitzki with the second pick of the fourth round. Aside from missing at least a few weeks of the regular season, he's now an aging big man with a bum knee. What convinced you to pull the trigger on him here?

Brian McKitish: "Dirk is getting up there in age and mileage, and the knee injury is certainly a concern, but he's been one of the league's most durable players this decade, missing only 36 games in the past 10 years. Still a top-15 player when healthy, I felt pretty confident nabbing him in the early fourth round when he may only miss the first 10-15 games of the season."

[h=4]Round 5[/h]

Pick	Player	Team
41	Joe Johnson, Bkn SG	Team Quintong
42	Jrue Holiday, Phi PG	Team Karabell
43	Joakim Noah, Chi C	Team Brooks
44	Ersan Ilyasova, Mil SF	Team Tardy
45	Andre Iguodala, Den SF	Team Landman
46	Brook Lopez, Bkn C	Team Carpenter
47	Chris Bosh, Mia PF	Team Cregan
48	Nicolas Batum, Por SF	Team Whitling
49	Danny Granger, Ind SF	Team McKitish
50	Eric Gordon, Nor SG	Team Allgood

We'll have to wait to see exactly how the rock will be shared between all of the scoring options in Brooklyn this season, but at worst, Lopez should score in the mid-teens with excellent percentages. Who knows, maybe he'll remember how to rebound, too. He was the best center left on my board, so I nabbed him.

Ersan Ilyasova finally broke out last season for the Milwaukee Bucks, and they locked him up with a pretty good contract. Do you expect him to maintain -- or even improve upon -- last season's success?

Neil Tardy: "Taking Ilyasova at 44 -- while passing on Andre Iguodala -- yes, it's safe to say I'm all in with him. With the Bucks' offense running through Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis, I'm not expecting big scoring, but with modest statistical improvement, we're talking about a player who could average 15-and-10 with a 3-pointer, a steal, a block and excellent percentages. Rebounds aside, he won't be elite in any category, but Ilyasova should be a legitimate contributor in six cats (seven if you count turnovers). Relative to his average draft position on ESPN.com, he's a tremendous value."

[h=4]Round 6[/h]

Pick	Player	Team
51	Ryan Anderson, Nor PF	Team Allgood
52	Kenneth Faried, Den PF	Team McKitish
53	Kyle Lowry, Tor PG	Team Whitling
54	Tyreke Evans, Sac PG	Team Cregan
55	John Wall, Wsh PG	Team Carpenter
56	Tyson Chandler, NY C	Team Landman
57	Tony Parker, SA PG	Team Tardy
58	Amar'e Stoudemire, NY PF	Team Brooks
59	Jeremy Lin, Hou PG	Team Karabell
60	Kevin Garnett, Bos PF	Team Quintong

Typically, I try to avoid having too many injured (or injury-prone) guys on my team. However, at this point of the draft, I felt I had to roll the dice on Wall in this format. If I can keep pace at all over the first month, my opponents will not be happy to see Wall and Love on my roster the rest of the season. It also allows me to trade dimes, because I already have Westbrook.

There arguably is not a bigger mystery man in Fantasyland than Jeremy Lin. We briefly saw the upside (and the downside) of Lin during his brief tenure with the New York Knicks last season. Now he is with the Houston Rockets, but he is still dealing with his knee issue. What convinced you to drop your sixth-rounder on him?

Eric Karabell: "My expectations on Lin are well in check, as in 14 points, 6 assists and enough threes and steals to matter for that round. And that's the floor, not the ceiling. To me, it's more about the opportunity than anything. We know the Rockets will play him plenty, assuming health, and with much of last season's team elsewhere thanks to a failed attempt to get Dwight Howard, Lin might have to score a lot."

[h=4]Round 7[/h]

Pick	Player	Team
61	Damian Lillard, Por PG	Team Quintong
62	Tim Duncan, SA PF	Team Karabell
63	Wesley Matthews, Por SG	Team Brooks
64	Marcus Thornton, Sac SG	Team Tardy
65	Klay Thompson, GS SG	Team Landman
66	JaVale McGee, Den C	Team Carpenter
67	Andrea Bargnani, Tor PF	Team Cregan
68	Danilo Gallinari, Den SF	Team Whitling
69	Zach Randolph, Mem PF	Team McKitish
70	Isaiah Thomas, Sac PG	Team Allgood

In a points system, I wouldn't have even considered McGee here. In this H2H category system, though, his big block ability will help me beat teams that are weak at blocking shots. That made him worth the reach.

The hype machine for Damian Lillard has been going full bore all summer and fall. He surely seems capable of making a run for rookie of the year. It's almost always a roll of the dice when it comes to rookies, but you were confident enough in his abilities to take him in Round 7. Why?

James Quintong: "I'll admit I'm falling for the hype, although the opportunity is definitely there with a Trail Blazers team in flux and he's got plenty of skills to be a top fantasy performer. I probably did reach a little for him, but given my place in the draft, I didn't think he would be available with my pick at the end of the eighth round, so I had to make a move sooner than later. It's one of the weird things picking either first or last in a round, while you get your opportunity to take two players at once, sometimes you'll have to go way beyond the preferred ranking/draft slot because you know the player you're targeting will go in the 15-20 slots between picks."

[h=4]Round 8[/h]

Pick	Player	Team
71	Carlos Boozer, Chi PF	Team Allgood
72	Raymond Felton, NY PG	Team McKitish
73	Gordon Hayward, Uta SG	Team Whitling
74	Mo Williams, Uta PG	Team Cregan
75	Gerald Wallace, Bkn SF	Team Carpenter
76	Manu Ginobili, SA SG	Team Landman
77	Luol Deng, Chi SF	Team Tardy
78	Arron Afflalo, Orl SG	Team Brooks
79	Nene, Wsh C	Team Karabell
80	O.J. Mayo, Dal SG	Team Quintong

When I do roto or category drafts, I use a spreadsheet filled with player projections and cut and paste my team together as we go. Looking down my projections, I felt I was pretty good in steals, rebounds and blocks, but I thought the boost Wallace will give me in those hustle stats should make me competitive each week in all three categories.

You managed to draft five point guards in only 13 rounds, including three straight from Round 8 to Round 10 (Mo Williams, Kemba Walker, Jameer Nelson). What was your strategy here?

John Cregan: "It's sort of the death-by-papercut strategy. In a lot of drafts, at PG, I'm going with quantity over high-end quality. I just think there are so many undervalued PGs out there that I'd rather load up my UTIL and G slots with nothing but point guards who hit 3s and use my higher picks on the best players available at the other positions. It's sort of the opposite of what I've won with in recent years (a stud PG in the first round), but I see the terrain shifting at that position this season."

[h=4]Round 9[/h]

Pick	Player	Team
81	Kris Humphries, Bkn PF	Team Quintong
82	Jason Terry, Bos SG	Team Karabell
83	Brandon Knight, Det PG	Team Brooks
84	Jeff Teague, Atl PG	Team Tardy
85	Kawhi Leonard, SA SF	Team Landman
86	Nikola Pekovic, Min C	Team Carpenter
87	Kemba Walker, Cha PG	Team Cregan
88	Anderson Varejao, Cle C	Team Whitling
89	Louis Williams, Atl PG	Team McKitish
90	Evan Turner, Phi SG	Team Allgood

I have Pekovic on my short list of sleepers. I considered him the previous round and was glad to see he was still here. I think he's poised for a big season, plus he will help get me through the first month or so while his teammate, Love, is out of action.

Evan Turner is a bit of a mystery player this year. He will have every opportunity to break out this season with the Philadelphia 76ers, but many pundits wonder if he actually has the requisite tools to make it happen. What are your expectations for Turner this season?

Christian Allgood: "I took a gamble on Turner here because the departure of Andre Iguodala leaves a big hole at the SF position in Philadelphia, and I believe Turner will be the man asked to fill that void. While nowhere near the defender or scorer that Iguodala is, he is a particularly good rebounder for a small forward and I expect he will assume an expanded role on the offensive end. He does hurt me in some categories, like 3PM and FT%, but I already resigned myself to underperforming in those when I drafted Dwight Howard. I also worry that guys like Thaddeus Young and Dorell Wright could play their way into that starting role. Bottom line, Turner is definitely a risk, but he has a well-rounded game that could pay off for me in the end."

[h=4]Round 10[/h]

Pick	Player	Team
91	Kevin Martin, Hou SG	Team Allgood
92	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cha SF	Team McKitish
93	Darren Collison, Dal PG	Team Whitling
94	Jameer Nelson, Orl PG	Team Cregan
95	Jonas Valanciunas, Tor C	Team Carpenter
96	Andrew Bogut, GS C	Team Landman
97	George Hill, Ind PG	Team Tardy
98	Elton Brand, Dal PF	Team Brooks
99	Ray Allen, Mia SG	Team Karabell
100	Andrei Kirilenko, Min SF	Team Quintong

I was driving the Valanciunas train before he was even drafted (I wanted my hometown Detroit Pistons to move up and get him). Now that he has an extra year of experience under his belt and little competition for minutes with the Toronto Raptors, he's one of the better late-round fliers you can take. At the very least, he should have quality percentages, hit the glass and block some shots.

[h=4]Round 11[/h]

Pick	Player	Team
101	Chauncey Billups, LAC PG	Team Quintong
102	Luis Scola, Pho PF	Team Karabell
103	Rodney Stuckey, Det SG	Team Brooks
104	Thaddeus Young, Phi SF	Team Tardy
105	Jose Calderon, Tor PG	Team Landman
106	Ben Gordon, Cha SG	Team Carpenter
107	Glen Davis, Orl PF	Team Cregan
108	Chris Kaman, Dal C	Team Whitling
109	Derrick Favors, Uta PF	Team McKitish
110	J.R. Smith, NY SG	Team Allgood

Everyone is sleeping on Gordon, maybe with good reason. After all, he did next to nothing with the Detroit Pistons. But I'm willing to roll the dice on his scoring and 3-point prowess in his new gig with the Charlotte Bobcats, who have no one else capable of being a dominant scorer.

[h=4]Round 12[/h]

Pick	Player	Team
111	Michael Beasley, Pho SF	Team Allgood
112	Omer Asik, Hou C	Team McKitish
113	DeAndre Jordan, LAC C	Team Whitling
114	Tristan Thompson, Cle PF	Team Cregan
115	Steve Novak, NY PF	Team Carpenter
116	Dion Waiters, Cle SG	Team Landman
117	Byron Mullens, Cha PF	Team Tardy
118	Shawn Marion, Dal SF	Team Brooks
119	Spencer Hawes, Phi C	Team Karabell
120	Samuel Dalembert, Mil C	Team Quintong

I love Novak in the latter rounds of H2H category leagues for his 3-point upside. In weeks when one of my regulars plays only a game or two and Novak has three or four games, I can plug him in and have a legit shot at locking up 3s for the week.

[h=4]Round 13[/h]

Pick	Player	Team
121	Mario Chalmers, Mia PG	Team Quintong
122	Jared Dudley, Pho SF	Team Karabell
123	Thomas Robinson, Sac PF	Team Brooks
124	Ricky Rubio, Min PG	Team Tardy
125	Ramon Sessions, Cha PG	Team Landman
126	Andre Drummond, Det PF	Team Carpenter
127	Harrison Barnes, GS SF	Team Cregan
128	Greivis Vasquez, Nor PG	Team Whitling
129	Bismack Biyombo, Cha C	Team McKitish
130	Luke Ridnour, Min PG	Team Allgood

This was a bit of a homer pick for my Pistons, but if you've seen Drummond play this preseason, it's clear he's farther along than many thought prior to the draft. If I can hold onto him for the second half of the season, he could be a serious factor in rebounding and shot-blocking come playoff time.

HacheMan · Oct 25, 2012

[h=1]Who's the best big man?[/h][h=3]Big Man Barometer ranks the best power forwards and centers of the week[/h]By Bradford Doolittle | Basketball Prospectus

Editor's note: Insider debuts the Big Man Barometer, a weekly ranking of which power forwards and/or centers had the best week and who might have a good upcoming week.

The NBA has forever been known as a league of giants. In a general sense, that hasn't changed.

The average height for an American male adult is about 5-foot-10. In the NBA universe, that height is an aberration. According to Basketball-Reference.com, the average height in the league has rounded off at 6-foot-7 in each of the past 32 seasons. Just 25 players 5-foot-10 or under have appeared in a game during that span. What is the percentile rank of the height of a 6-foot-7 American male? Beats me. Every chart I could find cuts off at 6-foot-4, which in itself tells you something. These "bigs" represent just about the top 2-3 percent of all of us, but an unusual, yet still minuscule, portion of those people are playing professional basketball.

So yes, the NBA is a giant's league. But it might be getting smaller. The traditional big man has seen his importance reduced over the years, and a trio of trends point to this conclusion:

1. The advent of the 3-point line
2. The evolution of positionless lineups (i.e., the 2011-12 Miami Heat)
3. The NBA's crackdown on hand checking

And yet, NBA fans continue to be fascinated by the physical marvels and production of bigs. They are able to score and dominate a game and still play a crucial role in rim protection and rebounding.

Thus, we bring you The Big Man Barometer. Each week, we'll be tracking how big men are used across the league and measuring their production. Using NBAPET, my system for evaluating and tracking the league, we'll monitor the lineups coaches are using on a possession-by-possession basis and ranking the players in the "big" positions that we've always called center and power forward. And with the advent of "positionless" lineups, in any given week, some players might be "big" one week, and not the next. So the barometer will be fluid and could feature new names every week.

Our system will measure the production of players only when they play the 4 or 5, which means that LeBron James and any other small-ball candidate can slip into the rankings. The rankings will be based on each player's wins above replacement player (WARP) over the previous seven days while playing the 4 or 5, and will also incorporate a clutch factor using a basketball version of win probability added.

In addition to ranking the results of the past week, we'll also be projecting the next week going forward, which will be of interest to our fantasy-basketball-playing readers. These rankings will forecast weekly production based on quality of opponents and other scheduling factors.

Today, though, we'll keep it simple, more like a season preview. Using the SCHOENE projections from Pro Basketball Prospectus 2012-13, we'll rank the top 10 big men going into the season based on each player's base position. This will leave out James and other guys who are small in no other way but in an NBA context, but only for now. Then we'll spotlight three big guys who will be in action during the season's first two nights. The Big Man Barometer will run each Thursday.

So here are the projected top 10 big men for 2012-13:

[h=3]1. Dwight Howard, Los Angeles Lakers (15.2 projected WARP)[/h]

<center>Howard</center>

The game's best big man is a traditional center with decidedly nontraditional athletic ability. Now Howard is in new environs and it will be fascinating to see the effect the Lakers' star-studded cast has on his numbers. He will also still be nursing his back, on which he underwent surgery this past offseason. But he has looked solid in preseason appearances.
<center>

</center>[h=3]2. Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves (14.2 projected WARP)[/h]

<center>Love</center>

In today's NBA, it's vital even in traditional lineups that one of your big men can knock down face-up jumpers. Love, of course, offers that with an excellent 3-point shot, plus the killer added value of premier offensive rebounding. This will probably be the only time we see Love on the barometer until after he heals from his hand injury in six to eight weeks.
<center>

</center>[h=3]3. Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Hornets (13.8 projected WARP)[/h]

<center>Anderson</center>

Anderson's numbers have been tethered to Howard, and because of that, his projection is exaggerated. Still, in many ways Anderson has come to typify what coaches seek in a modern-day 4: 3-point shooting and defensive rebounding. However, it's left to be seen whether Anderson can do what he did in Orlando without Howard. Or was it that Anderson opened up the lane for Howard?
<center>

</center>[h=3]4. Andrew Bynum, Philadelphia 76ers (12.8 projected WARP)[/h]

<center>Bynum</center>
The mobility required of current centers is an offshoot of the preponderance of pick-and-roll basketball and it applies to both ends of the floor. Bynum has that plus a back-to-the-basket skill set that is a throwback. As the featured player in Philly, Bynum will offer the old-school brand of inside-out basketball. It looks unlikely Bynum will be ready for the start of the season, but when he returns, he should make an instant impact on the Sixers.
<center>

</center>[h=3]5. Blake Griffin, Clippers (12.3 projected WARP)[/h]

<center>Griffin</center>
Once upon a time, power forwards were either low-usage, dirty-work players such as Marc Iavaroni and Kurt Rambis, or more skilled musclemen such as Buck Williams, Truck Robinson and Karl Malone. Now you have Blake Griffin, who jumps like Jordan in his prime and gets down the floor as quickly as any player in the game. His lone weakness remains his poor free throw shooting.
<center>

</center>[h=3]6. Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks (11.1 projected WARP)[/h]

<center>Smith</center>
Smith is a hybrid player who can swing between any of the three frontline positions. He's never developed the face-up game that would mark him as a true stretch player, though that's never stopped him from trying. Still, Smith offers a complete set of skills, with rebounding numbers that go up annually and elite weakside shot-blocking.
<center>

</center>[h=3]7. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Hornets (10.9 projected WARP)[/h]

<center>Davis</center>
We may not have seen an impact defender with more upside on the other end of the floor since Tim Duncan. We have to remind ourselves that not only is Davis entering what once would have been his sophomore year in college, but he's just three years removed from being a 6-foot-2 guard. Davis is now a power forward on paper, but it will be fascinating to see how his position evolves as Hornets coach Monty Williams learns to fit players around him.
<center>

</center>[h=3]8. Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons (10.7 projected WARP)[/h]

<center>Monroe</center>
A center during his first two years, Monroe is being transitioned to the power forward spot. That evolution may be gradual due to the construction of the 4-heavy Pistons roster, but the additions of Andre Drummond and Viacheslav Kravtsov portend this shift. With his excellent playmaking skills, Monroe isn't unlike top power forwards of the past two decades such as Kevin Garnett and Chris Webber. It's unlikely that he's ever going to be a stretch guy, however, which means that the Pistons are always going to lean on traditional lineups with him around.
<center>

</center>[h=3]9. Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets (9.1 projected WARP)[/h]

<center>Faried</center>
Faried is not a floor spacer, but he shows how elite skill sets always find a way onto the floor no matter what positional trends might be around the league. His stat line generates a list of comparable players that include a lot of centers, Howard being one of them. However, he's 6-foot-8 and has the mobility to guard stretch 4s while still being one of the top offensive rebounders in the league.
<center>

</center>[h=3]10. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers (9.0 projected WARP)[/h]

<center>Aldridge</center>
Aldridge has developed into one of the top offensive big men in the league, adding both usage and efficiency to his game on an annual basis. His numbers are very similar to those of Chris Bosh, only Aldridge is more efficient. With the Trail Blazers fielding an extremely young, transitional roster this season, it will be interesting to see if Aldridge becomes more of a volume scorer.
<center>

</center>[h=3]Three to watch[/h](for games of Oct. 30-31)
[h=3]Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls (8.9 projected WARP)[/h]

<center>Noah</center>
Centers in the NBA not only use to play more and score more, but they also used to get more assists. Now most pivots rely on others to make plays. There are exceptions, of course, and Noah is one of them. His passing skills from the high post have been underutilized with Derrick Rose handling the rock, but Noah may add a few dimes to the ante this season with his star point guard rehabbing. He'll open his season against Sacramento's DeMarcus Cousins, ranked 23rd on our preseason big man list. Cousins may be poised for a breakout season, but he's temperamental and Noah has been known to get under the skin of his opponents.
<center>

</center>[h=3]Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics (5.6 projected WARP)[/h]

<center>Garnett</center>
The small-ball trend gets the full spotlight treatment on opening night as Garnett faces 17th-ranked Chris Bosh and the Miami Heat. Both players begin the season as starting centers. For Garnett, it was a move 16¾ years in the making, and the Celtics took off when he made the shift.
<center>

</center>[h=3]Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto Raptors (4.8 projected WARP)
The Raptors have never had a center with close to the upside of Valanciunas, whose name won't ring the bells of many casual NBA fans. Will that change? We'll get the first indications of that on the second night of the season, when Toronto takes on the Pacers and their own traditional center in 7-foot-2 Roy Hibbert. Hibbert, ranked 26th among bigs in our preseason forecast, will play his first regular-season game after inking a new max contract over the summer. That deal, as much as anything, shows you that NBA teams still value size. As for Valanciunas, it's unclear how much we'll see of him at the outset as veteran journeyman Aaron Gray may get the starting nod.[/h]

HacheMan · Oct 29, 2012

Harden's value rises with Rockets

By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

If I'm a Houston Rockets fan, I'm finally feeling a little less bitter this morning.
Because I know I would still harbor some resentment over the revocation of the original Chris Paul trade. Remember that one? That trade would've made Pau Gasol a Rocket.
Post-Pau, instead of assembling a team built for now, Houston went young, opting for a more traditional rebuild/reload that would hopefully allow it to eventually add a legit marquee name or two.
Well, the Rockets finally got one, as the Rockets acquired James Harden from the Oklahoma City Thunder for Kevin Martin and Jeremy Lamb.
Rockets fans should be happy. And if you're a James Harden owner in a fantasy league? You should be happy, too.
Happy because your fantasy team's starting shooting guard just became a starting shooting guard in real life. A starting shooting guard for a team (no disrespect to Jeremy Lin) that just became his team.
Let's take a look at Harden's new lineup:
PG: Jeremy Lin
SG: James Harden
SF: Chandler Parsons/Carlos Delfino
PF: Patrick Patterson/Marcus Morris/Royce White
C: Omer Asik

As you can see, Harden's fantasy value just got a boost.
The first, and best, reason? Minutes. In Oklahoma City, Harden would have been fortunate to average 30-31 minutes per game. Now, instead of coming off the bench, he'll start and becomes a marquee max player. Harden's minutes should climb into the 34-35 minute range.
The second reason? Touches. Harden goes from being the third scoring option behind two top-10 talents (Durant and Westbrook), to being the face of a franchise. Harden is now the unquestioned No. 1 option in a lineup that will desperately need his scoring. As a result, Harden's usage rate will undoubtedly shoot into the mid-20s.
Take a look at that lineup. Who else is going to get the ball in crunch time?
And don't forget that Houston also just traded both their starting and backup shooting guards. I like Lamb's potential, and think he would have ended up earning some real playing time in Houston. But now, instead of having Lamb pushing for developmental minutes, Harden has only Daequan Cook to contend with.
I like Harden to add 15 percent to his numbers across the board. And Harden was already one of the best across-the-board producers in fantasy.
His hidden value lies in the percentages. Harden's percentages are sky-high for a shooting guard. And his true shooting percentage (66.0 in 2011-12) ranks among the absolute best in the game (fourth in the NBA last season).
A conservative estimate would nudge Harden's scoring into the 20.0-20.5 ppg range. His rebounds and assists should both end up around 4.5 per game. And you can count on at least 2.0 3-pointers a night.
So if you're going into your draft, where should you take Harden?
You probably don't put him in the penthouse at SG with Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant. That would mean Harden is now a late-first-round pick. But there is a chance Harden could end up in that rarefied air by All-Star Weekend. That level of upside -- that 24 ppg, 5 rebounds, 5 assists kind of upside -- is there.
For now, I'd put him ahead of Lawson (a PG/SG), but behind Kobe and Wade. Before, I was worried Harden was a little overvalued as a sixth man. But as a starter, Harden becomes a legit top-15 player in fantasy. I start thinking about him in the middle of the second round.
In auction keeper leagues? Bid with absolute confidence. I'd price him in the $46-52 range. Remember, in a keeper situation, you'd rather have Harden going forward than Kobe or Wade. Harden's percentages aren't discussed enough in terms of his fantasy value. He's going to anchor your team in both categories while still generating 3s.
If you're a Jeremy Lin owner? In a way, I believe this trade is going to help Lin. It takes off some of the pressure to that contract as he continues to find his legs after offseason knee surgery. Now he gets a running mate who will have no problem being the guy. Lin can breathe a little easier as he settles into his still-new role as a highly compensated franchise player.
Lin's preseason struggles depressed his ADP (63.3) a little too much; I liked him in the late sixth round even before the trade. There's a ton of young upside featured at PG in fantasy this season. Lin could end up generating fourth-round value, even with Harden siphoning off some of his shots.
So what about Kevin Martin? He's still going to be looked to for scoring, but not with the same urgency there was in Houston. Here's his new situation:
PG: Russell Westbrook
SG: Thabo Sefolosha/Kevin Martin
SF: Kevin Durant
PF: Serge Ibaka
C: Kendrick Perkins

Martin joins a contender, but likely loses his starting job. Now he has to get in line to find his touches & behind Durant and Westbrook. Conversely, Oklahoma City will need Martin to fill Harden's role, which prioritizes adding scoring punch off the bench. He'll still get the green light when he's in the game.
Before, I believe Martin was primed for a nice undervalued campaign in Houston. With the market so thin at SG, I thought his ADP (79.5) was running a little low. Now, I like Martin just where he is: grouped with Wesley Matthews and Jason Terry in the pecking order at SG.
As a member of the Thunder, I think Martin stays around 16-17 ppg, with 1.5 3-pointers and a gaudy free throw percentage (.894 in 2011-12).
Unfortunately, Lamb's deep sleeper value just went way underground. I still like his long-term potential, but it's hard to see Lamb carving out a fantasy-worthy role behind Martin and Sefolosha. Lamb and Perry Jones will bear watching as developmental players, but shouldn't land on most fantasy radars until 2013-14 at the earliest.

HacheMan · Oct 29, 2012

2012-13 fantasy basketball ranks

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

The following are Brian McKitish's personal rankings for the 2012-2013 fantasy basketball season. They are intended for the ESPN Standard game, which is a 10-team league comprised of a traditional starting five, an additional forward, an additional guard and three "utility" players who can qualify at any position, along with a three-man bench. The league uses rotisserie scoring for the following eight categories: points, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, 3-pointers, free-throw percentage and shooting percentage. Last update: Oct. 29.

[h=4]Brian McKitish's 2012-13 Fantasy Basketball Top 150[/h]<inline1>

Rank Player PG Rank SG Rank SF Rank PF Rank C Rank
1 Kevin Durant, SF, OKC 1
2 LeBron James, SF, MIA 2
3 Chris Paul, PG, LAC 1
4 Russell Westbrook, PG, OKC 2
5 Deron Williams, PG, BKN 3
6 Josh Smith, PF/SF, ATL 3 1
7 Dwyane Wade, SG, MIA 1
8 Al Jefferson, C/PF, UTAH 2 1
9 Kyrie Irving, PG, CLE 4
10 DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, SAC 3 2
11 Kobe Bryant, SG, LAL 2
12 James Harden, SG, HOU 3
13 Ty Lawson, PG/SG, DEN 5 4
14 LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, POR 4 3
15 Marc Gasol, C, MEM 4
16 Pau Gasol, PF/C, LAL 5 5
17 Serge Ibaka, C/PF, OKC 6 6
18 Kevin Love, PF/C, MIN 7 7
19 Dwight Howard, C, LAL 8
20 Carmelo Anthony, SF/PF, NY 4 8
21 Rajon Rondo, PG, BOS 6
22 Andrew Bynum, C, PHI 9
23 Goran Dragic, PG, PHO 7
24 Al Horford, C/PF, ATL 9 10
25 Rudy Gay, SF, MEM 5
26 Brandon Jennings, PG, MIL 8
27 Monta Ellis, PG/SG, MIL 9 5
28 Paul Millsap, PF, UTAH 10
29 Dirk Nowitzki, PF, DAL 11
30 Greg Monroe, PF/C, DET 12 11
31 Blake Griffin, PF, LAC 13
32 Marcin Gortat, C, PHO 12
33 Steve Nash, PG, LAL 10
34 Mike Conley, PG, MEM 11
35 Andre Iguodala, SF/SG, DEN 6 6
36 Paul Pierce, SF/SG, BOS 7 7
37 David Lee, PF/C, GS 14 13
38 Paul George, SF/SG, IND 8 8
39 Nicolas Batum, SF/SG, POR 9 9
40 Anthony Davis, PF/C, NO 15 14
41 Roy Hibbert, C, IND 15
42 Tony Parker, PG, SA 12
43 Ersan Ilyasova, SF/PF, MIL 10 16
44 Danny Granger, SF, IND 11
45 Joe Johnson, SG/SF, BKN 10 12
46 Stephen Curry, PG/SG, GS 13 11
47 Ryan Anderson, PF, NO 17
48 Chris Bosh, PF/C, MIA 18 16
49 Joakim Noah, C/PF, CHI 19 17
50 Jrue Holiday, PG, PHI 14
51 John Wall, PG, WSH 15
52 Tyreke Evans, PG/SG/SF, SAC 16 12 13
53 Kenneth Faried, PF, DEN 20
54 Brook Lopez, C, BKN 18
55 Kevin Garnett, PF/C, BOS 21 19
56 Kyle Lowry, PG, TOR 17
57 Danilo Gallinari, SF/PF, DEN 14 22
58 Wesley Matthews, SG/SF, POR 13 15
59 Marcus Thornton, SG, SAC 14
60 Damian Lillard, PG, POR 18
61 Tyson Chandler, C, NY 20
62 Klay Thompson, SG, GS 15
63 Zach Randolph, PF, MEM 23
64 Jeremy Lin, PG, HOU 19
65 Luol Deng, SF, CHI 16
66 Andrea Bargnani, C/PF, TOR 24 21
67 JaVale McGee, C, DEN 22
68 Arron Afflalo, SG, ORL 16
69 Carlos Boozer, PF, CHI 25
70 Gerald Wallace, SF/PF, BKN 17 26
71 Nikola Pekovic, C, MIN 23
72 Gordon Hayward, SG/SF, UTAH 17 18
73 Manu Ginobili, SG, SA 18
74 Raymond Felton, PG, NY 20
75 Eric Gordon, SG, NO 19
76 Isaiah Thomas, PG, SAC 21
77 Mo Williams, PG/SG, UTAH 22 20
78 Kris Humphries, PF, BKN 27
79 Lou Williams, PG/SG, ATL 23 21
80 Amare Stoudemire, C/PF, NY 28 24
81 Nene Hilario, C/PF, WSH 29 25
82 Kevin Martin, SG, OKC 22
83 O.J. Mayo, SG, DAL 23
84 Jason Terry, SG, BOS 24
85 Tim Duncan, PF/C, SA 30 26
86 Jeff Teague, PG, ATL 24
87 Glen Davis, PF/C, ORL 31 27
88 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, CHA 19
89 Rodney Stuckey, PG/SG, DET 25 25
90 Kawhi Leonard, PF/SG/SF, SA 26 20 32
91 Brandon Knight, PG/SG, DET 26 27
92 Anderson Varejao, PF/C, CLE 33 28
93 George Hill, PG/SG, IND 27 28
94 Michael Beasley, SF/PF, PHO 21 34
95 Kemba Walker, PG/SG, CHA 28 29
96 Andrei Kirilenko, SF/PF, MIN 22 35
97 Darren Collison, PG, DAL 29
98 Jameer Nelson, PG, ORL 30
99 Andrew Bogut, C, GS 29
100 Derrick Favors, PF, UTAH 36
101 Evan Turner, SG/SF, PHI 30 23
102 Omer Asik, C, HOU 30
103 Thaddeus Young, SF/PF, PHI 24 37
104 Jonas Valanciunas, C, TOR 31
105 Luis Scola, PF, PHO 38
106 Ray Allen, SG, MIA 31
107 Tristan Thompson, PF/C, CLE 39 32
108 David West, PF, IND 40
109 DeAndre Jordan, C, LAC 33
110 Byron Mullens, C/PF, CHA 41 34
111 J.R. Smith, SG/SF, NY 32 25
112 Bismack Biyombo, PF/C, CHA 42 35
113 Elton Brand, PF, DAL 43
114 Samuel Dalembert, C, MIL 36
115 Greivis Vasquez, PG, NO 31
116 Chris Kaman, C/PF, DAL 44 37
117 J.J. Hickson, PF/C, POR 45 38
118 Mario Chalmers, PG, MIA 32
119 Dion Waiters, SG, CLE 33
120 DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF, TOR 34 26
121 Thomas Robinson, PF, SAC 46
122 Ricky Rubio, PG, MIN 33
123 Luke Ridnour, PG/SG, MIN 34 35
124 Harrison Barnes, SF, GS 27
125 Jose Calderon, PG, TOR 35
126 Brandon Bass, PF/C, BOS 47 39
127 Tony Allen, SG, MEM 36
128 Derrick Rose, PG, CHI 36
129 Ben Gordon, SG, CHA 37
130 Jordan Crawford, SG, WSH 38
131 Jamal Crawford, SG/PG, LAC 37 39
132 Al Harrington, PF, ORL 48
133 Jose Juan Barea, PG/SG, MIN 38 40
134 Dorell Wright, SF, PHI 28
135 Wilson Chandler, SF/SG, DEN 41 29
136 Carlos Delfino, SF/SG, FA 42 30
137 Spencer Hawes, C, PHI 40
138 Jared Dudley, SF/SG, PHO 43 31
139 Chauncey Billups, PG/SG, LAC 39 44
140 Gustavo Ayon, PF, ORL 49
141 Antawn Jamison, PF, LAL 50
142 Emeka Okafor, C, WSH 41
143 Gerald Henderson, SG/SF, CHA 45 32
144 Nick Young, SG, PHI 46
145 Jarrett Jack, PG/SG, GS 40 47
146 Ramon Sessions, PG, CHA 41
147 Bradley Beal, SG, WSH 48
148 Jason Richardson, SG/SF, PHI 49 33
149 Derrick Williams, PF, MIN 51
150 Marshon Brooks, SG/SF, BKN 50 34

<thead>
<tbody>
</tbody>
</inline1>

HacheMan · Oct 29, 2012

Lakers, Irving, Aldridge, Anthony lead Week 1 Fastbreak bets

By Tom Carpenter
ESPN.com

For decades, fantasy hoopsters competed primarily via the rotisserie format, where teams accumulate seasonlong totals in eight or nine categories to determine a winner. However, systems that grant a certain number of points per stat produced (like fantasy football) in weekly head-to-head battles between competitors also have been around a long time, and they have really gained in popularity in recent years.
Beyond those H2H points formats, where you create a traditional fantasy league of 10-12 owners who snake-draft teams -- and where each NBA player is owned by just one fantasy squad -- there is another format where every competitor creates the best possible weekly lineup from the entire pool of NBA players, whose stats are then scored in a points system. ESPN's new Fastbreak game uses this format and includes the option of a salary cap.
I have been playing in myriad points leagues for a dozen years and have proudly won the Ultimate Basketball Challenge three times in nine years against some of the top fantasy sportswriters in the industry. So I'm excited that each Friday I will be rapping with you about the various points systems in which we can compete on ESPN.com. I'll focus primarily on the floating salary-cap version of Fastbreak, because it's the toughest format and encompasses most other points-style games.

For those taking part in Fastbreak, I recently gave an overview of the rules and basic strategies involved. Many of the rules and strategies in that game apply to any points-league system, but as always, you will want to make sure you have a good handle on the specific rules in the format you use.
One thing to note about the salary-cap version of Fastbreak is that rosters will lock prior to the first game of the week. That will be Tuesday, Oct. 30 in Week 1, but most weeks it will be Monday evening. After that, we can begin setting our rosters for the following week based on new salaries, which will go up, down or remain the same depending on how each player performed the previous week. Salaries will remain the same from Week 1 to Week 2, because no stats will have been generated yet. That means that you can lock in your player at his Week 1 salary for the first two weeks.
The biggest factor each week will be how many games each NBA team plays during that stretch. Simply put, if Player A typically generates half of the stats Player B typically generates, then he should be expected to produce the same points if Player A plays four games and Player B plays twice. Most teams play three games each week, so you'll want to sit guys who play only twice and target those who will play four times.
In Week 1, the Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Bobcats, Memphis Grizzlies, Milwaukee Bucks, Minnesota Timberwolves, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers and Washington Wizards play just two games, and the Los Angeles Lakers play four.
Another factor to consider will be the strength of schedule, because production can go up or down depending on how tough opposing defenses are. In the early weeks of the season, however, I pay little attention to that, because things are pretty wide open before teams settle into a rhythm on defense.
Since we have access to every player in the Association, we want to target the cream of the crop. That means everyone should have LeBron James and/or Kevin Durant in their lineups as the backbone for success. This is because the best players will be those who produce the largest volume of stats, which means that mass FGA and FTA are important, as is production in multiple categories.
Someone like Steve Nash is a mediocre option in Fastbreak. Sure, he will dish a lot of assists, can score in the low teens and carry great percentages, but those percentages carry little weight when he attempts 9-10 field goals and 2-3 free throws per game. Plus, he isn't much of a rebounder, doesn't contribute any steals and turns the rock over a fair amount.
The same goes for Rajon Rondo, who is decent in this format but far from elite because his overall volume is limited, and Serge Ibaka, who does nothing but block shots.
On the other hand, mass volume can cover up flaws like hideous percentages. Guys like Dwight Howard (FT%), Blake Griffin (FT%) and DeMarcus Cousins (FT% and FG%) will be among the elite players at their respective positions because they take so many shots and contribute so heavily in rebounding that it outweighs their percentage issues.
With all this in mind, let's take a look at some of the better points-league plays available as we tip off the new fantasy hoops season.
Guards

The top dogs are Russell Westbrook, Dwyane Wade and Deron Williams due to their high-volume production. Chris Paul isn't far behind, but his FGA and FTA aren't quite on the same level as the other elite options. Let's take a look at some better bargains, though -- players you may be able to ride on the cheap so you can spend money elsewhere.
Kyrie Irving (8.4), Cleveland Cavaliers: Based on my projections for this season, the second-year guard actually matches what CP3 will produce each game in the Fastbreak scoring system. And I gave him only a modest boost in production beyond his rookie campaign; he could far exceed that if things really click. He plays a ton of games early this season (per week: 3, 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4), and is the best value at guard from the get-go.
Goran Dragic (8.3), Phoenix Suns; Jrue Holiday (8.3), Philadelphia 76ers: These guys have more in common than their $8.3 million price tag. Both are young point guards who are going to take on bigger roles leading their respective offenses. They also have similar upside (scoring, dimes, 3s, steals) and risk (haven't produced big numbers for a full season before). I like them if you are up against the salary cap and are looking for a cheaper option.
Stephen Curry (8.1), Golden State Warriors: The beauty of the Fastbreak game is that you don't have to worry about losing a fragile player like Curry for an extended stretch. If he gets hurt, you just cut him and sign someone else. When he is healthy, Curry's game is built for this format, because he contributes in every category but blocks. Plus, with Monta Ellis gone and Andrew Bogut hurt, the door is wide open for Curry to take on a larger volume of shots this season. The only long-term catch, aside from his health, is that the Warriors play just two games in Week 5. But he should be an excellent value until then.
Forwards
In this points system, LeBron and Durant are the clear-cut studs. They don't get hurt (knock on wood) and rarely have any form of slump. I intend to shell out the big bucks to lock them both up now. But there are plenty of quality forwards who will come at better prices if you choose to go a different route.

LaMarcus Aldridge, (8.9), Portland Trail Blazers: His combination of high-volume shots and great percentages is a perfect fit for points leagues. If you opt out of signing both James and Durant, Aldridge is arguably the no-brainer play at power forward. He comes at a fair price, and you should be able to lock him in as a stud and forget about that roster spot for the foreseeable future.
Carmelo Anthony (8.7), New York Knicks: Based on my projections and calculations, Melo is the only player besides the injured Kevin Love who comes close to the production LeBron and Durant will have in Fastbreak, and you can get him for $1.5 million less. I am assuming he returns to form after last season's disaster. If he does what I expect, Melo is by far the best value at his position. He will be a one-week rental to start, because the Knicks play only two contests in Week 2.
Luol Deng (8.3), Chicago Bulls: His wrist injury doesn't appear to be bothering him, and the Bulls offense will run through him until Derrick Rose returns to action many months from now. You can pen him in for at least 14 FGA and 4 FTA each game to go with typically good percentages. The Bulls play just two games in Week 4, but he should provide quality value until then, at which point you can cash out his increased value to boost your floating salary cap.
Center
Dwight Howard (9.3), Los Angeles Lakers: He is pretty much the clear play at this position, since the Lakers have four games this week. He is returning from a back injury, so it's unclear how much he will play and produce. Plus, he'll cost you a pretty penny to lock him up. There are safer plays available.
Greg Monroe (9.1), Detroit Pistons: Monroe is a perfect fit for points systems, because he carries good percentages, contributes in multiple categories and should take on a bigger offensive role this season. The Pistons play three games this week and four in Week 2. The only concern might be that six of those seven games are on the road, but I still like him as the safest play at center during that stretch. As a long-term investment, Monroe plays four games in six of the first eight weeks of the NBA season.
Andrea Bargnani (8.2), Toronto Raptors: Bargs can be frustrating in roto leagues because he is frail, carries a shaky FG% and contributes little beyond scoring. However, he covers those negatives up in points systems because he typically takes 15-plus FGA and 5-plus FTA each game. The Raptors play at least three games every week until the All-Star break, so he could be a long-term solution at center. Let's put it this way: You can't spell Bargnani without "bargain."
</photo3></photo2></photo1>

HacheMan · Oct 31, 2012

[h=1]2012-13 All-Breakout Team[/h][h=3]Ten players you can expect to see on new level (PER Diem: Oct. 31, 2012)[/h]

By John Hollinger | ESPN.com

James Harden benefited from playing alongside Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, right?

It makes sense, anyway. It seems like this should be true, as these are the only two other dynamic offensive players on the Oklahoma City Thunder, and one would presume that all the attention they draw would make life easier for Harden.

And thus, one would presume that he will have a hard time playing without those two now that he's with the Houston Rockets.

There's only one problem: This theory holds less water than the Sahara. Harden didn't benefit from playing with KD and Russ. In fact, the exact opposite is true.

Thanks to NBA.com's whiz-bang stats tool, we can see that Harden's per-minute scoring more than doubled when Durant was on the bench, from 14.9 points per 36 minutes to 31.2, and he did it with a higher shooting percentage and an absurdly high free throw rate. The same shift happened without Westbrook on the court, from 13.7 to 29.0, and again it was accompanied by a five-point jump in shooting percentage and a near-tripling of his free throw rate.

So the theory that he was riding his All-Star teammates' coattails was all wrong. It was more like the coattails suffocated him. With three star perimeter players on the floor and just one basketball, he was the one whose touches got squeezed, and it was his most quality looks that apparently were squeezed the most.

So what can be expected of Harden now that he's in Houston? Well, the potential for a big uptick in scoring is pretty scary. For starters, Harden averaged about 30 points per 36 minutes when one of his two star teammates was off the court, a figure that would make him the league leader in scoring at any reasonable minutes level.

But the other factor is that even if Harden's per-minute rates don't change at all, he is going to see a huge rise in his per-game stats simply because he'll be starting in Houston and playing roughly 36 minutes a game. (One might project Harden into the high 30s, except that he still has a fairly high foul rate for a wing player and this may cut into his minutes.)

Take Harden's averages from last season without any other adjustments, bump up the minutes to 36 a game, and you're looking at 19.3 points per game, with 4.2 assists thrown in. Factor in that Westbrook and Durant aren't around to crash his party, and his scoring average could be expected to climb into the low 20s. That's before considering that he's 23 and in his fourth season, which means he was likely to continue improving regardless.

You can see where I'm going with this. Harden might be the most hammer-over-the-head obvious candidate for the All-Breakout Team in all the years I've done this. The question isn't whether his numbers will jump, but rather how big the jump will be. A 20-5-5 type of season is well within range, although he may fall a bit short on the assists. Something wackier, along the lines of 23-5-6 and threatening to lead the league in free throw attempts, can't be ruled out.

As a result, Harden is the captain of my 10-man All-Breakout Team for this year, the players we can most expect to take a strong step forward this season.

As always, one important ground rule for the roster: No second-year players. C'mon people, that's like hitting fungoes. Every rookie from last season is likely to be better this season, in some cases dramatically. Surely you didn't need this news flash.

Instead we'll focus on third-year and older players, including a couple veterans who may be under the radar. For reference, here's last year's team, which also included Harden, as well as the NBA Most Improved Player Ryan Anderson and a couple other guys who didn't quite erupt the way we'd envisioned. (The Gerald Henderson era? Not so much).

And now, here are a few more guys that I expect to bust out this season:

[h=3]Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves[/h] When ESPN.com asked for our preseason award picks, I took Pekovic as the most improved player. This was a cynical choice, in that I don't think he'll actually improve so much as be recognized for doing for 82 games what he briefly did last season, but that's often how MIP awards come to pass.

Kevin Love's injury should also help, as it will establish the idea early that, hey, this Pekovic guy is pretty good. Last season, in 47 games, he averaged 20.6 points and 10.9 boards per 40 minutes and shot 56.4 percent, but he averaged only 26.9 minutes per game because he was backing up Darko Milicic for a while, and he got injured later in the season.

Now that he'll be a focal point offensively in Love's absence and will be starting all year, I'd expect Pekovic to average in the low 30s in minutes (he fouls too much to get more) and average something along the lines of 17 points and nine boards, with a shooting percentage in the low to mid-50s. Depending on how the story translates nationally, that could get him to the MIP.

[h=3]Kevin Seraphin, Washington Wizards[/h] Seraphin could potentially find himself boxed in by the more veteran combination of Emeka Okafor and Nene, but I suspect he'll still average about 30 minutes a game once one considers that (A) Seraphin is probably better than Okafor at this point, and (B) Nene likely will beg out of 15-20 games with assorted hangnails and ear-lobe contusions.

When Seraphin plays, he has shown he can play well. Last April, he emerged as a starter and averaged 15.5 points and 7.0 boards, flashing a vastly improved midrange jumper and a nice jump hook from the block. He turns 23 in December and took up the game at a late age, so there's still a lot of potential improvement on the way. He missed Washington's season opener, unfortunately, but look for him to establish himself as a solid frontcourt starter this season.

[h=3]Dorell Wright, Philadelphia 76ers[/h] Given the fact that the Sixers' other wings aren't really any good, and that Wright is the best shooter on a team that's somewhat starved for shooting, and that he had by far the best player efficiency rating of any Sixers wing in 2011-12, I'm surprised he isn't getting more attention.

Wright has had consecutive seasons with a PER better than the league average, has shot 36.5 percent on 3-pointers for his career, and despite how long he has been around he's only 26 years old and could still take another step forward. His competition for playing time is Nick Young, Jason Richardson and the wildly overrated Evan Turner. I can't imagine Wright not winning that battle and earning 30 or so minutes a game. If everything works out, he may average in the mid-teens for scoring and rank among the league leaders in 3-pointers.

[h=3]Jeremy Lin, Houston Rockets[/h] I find it fascinating that so many people seem to think Lin will be a flash in the pan. He has essentially no track of failure, playing well in his brief stints in the D-League and Golden State before his brief eruption with the Knicks last season. Additionally, he will play in a system that's tailor-made for point guards -- just ask Goran Dragic and Kyle Lowry, both of whom had career-best seasons in Kevin McHale's offense last season.

Yes, Lin has a high turnover rate and isn't a great outside shooter. He also draws fouls in bunches, rebounds unusually well for a point guard, and gets a lot of assists at the rim. Over the course of an 82-game season he may not match the heights of Linsanity -- virtually no player can -- but as long as his knee holds up he'll be an above-average starting point guard and should average something along the lines of 18 points and seven assists.

[h=3]Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz[/h] Once the Jazz cut the crap with starting Raja Bell and Josh Howard and actually put their best players on the floor, Hayward emerged as one of the league's top young wing players. He averaged 16.1 points on 50.7 percent shooting in April, helping Utah's surprise playoff run, and, more encouragingly, he shot 42.2 percent on 3s after the All-Star break.

I'd like him even more if he could play at small forward full-time, as his ball skills are stretched as a shooting guard, but regardless the 22-year-old Hayward needs only more aggression and a bit more experience to start averaging in the mid-high teens for scoring. Between Hayward and second-year pro Alec Burks, this is one the league's most promising wing situations.

(While we're on the subject of Utah, Derrick Favors is a beast, but I left him off the team because it's not clear to me how much he'll play with Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson in front of him and Enes Kanter looking like one of the league's most improved players during the preseason. I do expect Utah to make a trade at some point to clear up the frontcourt logjam, but if it's not until February it won't help Favors' averages much.)

[h=3]Paul George, Indiana Pacers[/h] Danny Granger's knee injury is bad news for the Pacers, but it may be great news for George, who can finally play his natural small forward position and will undoubtedly get more touches until Granger is back in the lineup. He's the same age, size and position as Hayward (and coincidentally plays in Hayward's hometown), but unlike Hayward, George didn't show much in-season growth last season. Instead, his progress came in the offseason between his first and second campaigns.

Similarly, I'd look for another step forward from George in Season 3. He shot 38.5 percent on 3s last season and has some excellent ball skills, but tends to fade in and out of games and struggled at times with his decision-making. Granger's absence will force him to stay engaged offensively, and with his size and shooting ability he should be able to ramp up his usage with little decline in efficiency.

[h=3]Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors[/h] Last season, Bargnani had a career-high in PER, which is pretty impressive considering he was nagged by injuries most of the campaign. But look back at his first few weeks and you realize there may be the potential for more: In 13 games before he was hurt, he averaged 23.5 points on 47.6 percent shooting, and also showed actual interest in things such as rebounding and defending.

This season, Bargnani can build on that, especially with fewer opposing centers beating on him now that rookie Jonas Valanciunas is manning the middle. While it's perhaps not fair to expect him to replicate that 13-game high-water mark over a full 82-game season, he still should be markedly better than the limited player who finished out the season (16.5 ppg, 39.2 percent shooting after his return). It doesn't seem unreasonable for him to average about 22-point, six-rebound range with solid percentages. If so, that could make him a borderline All-Star in the East*, especially if Toronto stays in the playoff race.

(* -- "In the East" has become the de rigeur shorthand phrase for "we know he's not really an All-Star, but he's pretty good, and would you just look at this trash conference.")

[h=3]Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers[/h] Batum came off the bench at the start of last season and averaged only 30.4 minutes per game. There is no way on God's green Earth he plays that infrequently in 2012-13, not after the Blazers purged most of the veterans and handed Batum a $45 million deal in the offseason.

Even projecting last season's numbers to 35 minutes per game yields some solid output -- 16 points, five boards -- but one must also factor in that Batum turns 24 in December and is still improving, and that he'll likely get a lot more touches this season than with the more offensively talented club of a season ago. Batum's percentages may take a slight hit, especially the 3-point percentage since it was already likely at his upper limit, but look for him to average in the high teens while shooting in the mid-40s as the second option for a Blazers team that appears short of weapons this season.

[h=3]Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons[/h]
Monroe actually had a breakout performance last season, but since he's 22 and still improving, and since nobody outside the state of Michigan is aware of his existence, I thought he still warranted mentioning here.

Monroe's averages of 15.4 points and 9.6 boards last season were impressive enough, especially given his 52.1 percent shooting and underrated passing skill. But the thing that could make him an All-Star in the East* this season is that he played only 31.5 minutes per game last season. That happened even though his foul rate was fairly low for a big man, and with the Pistons' lack of other offensive weapons it seems fairly likely his playing time could bump into the 35-minute range.

If that happens, and Monroe continues on his upward trajectory, one can see how he might be able to maintain averages at or near the heralded 20-10 mark; again, accompanied by a shooting mark in the 50s and some of the best assist numbers among big men. While Monroe isn't as far along defensively as he is offensively, he is still one of the best young big men in the game. In fact, I would argue he is a more valuable player at this point than the more heralded DeMarcus Cousins. If the Pistons can stick around the playoff race until February -- not likely, but stranger things have happened -- a 20-10 mark should be enough to get him to Houston.

HacheMan · Oct 31, 2012

[h=1]Rockets, Pistons could surprise[/h][h=3]New faces -- Harden and Drummond -- could change teams' outlooks[/h]
By LZ Granderson | ESPN.com

Life in sports is full of surprises.
The NFL started the season off with replacement refs -- surprise!
The Giants swept the Tigers -- surprise! Lance chea … OK, not all surprises are made the same.

Still, the trade that sent James Harden to Houston was such a surprise that all many of us could do was echo what Kevin Durant tweeted soon after hearing the news -- "Wow" -- or what Rockets GM Daryl Morey said when asked about his reaction to the news that Harden was even available -- "shocked."
But that's sports, and unpredictability is part of its appeal.
So how successful will the new-look Rockets be this season?
Who knows?

But it's only fitting that the team that surprised us all before the season started kicks things off against a team that may surprise us all by season's end.
The Detroit Pistons haven't had a winning record in three seasons, and hardly anyone thinks they'll break that streak this year.

But just as no one thought last year's Sixth Man of the Year would end up in Houston, there's a very good chance this year's Rookie of the Year is in Detroit. And because of that player, the Pistons just might find themselves above .500. Maybe even in the playoffs.

In the team's last preseason game, in less than 19 minutes of action against the Atlanta Hawks, Andre Drummond had 13 points, 10 rebounds and 2 blocked shots.
I know it's only the preseason and Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard are in better positions to get bigger numbers.
But remember, this is sports … and Harden was not supposed to be a Rocket.
I saw the 19-year-old Drummond in a game in Miami earlier this month, and he's definitely a work in progress. At times he looked lost, and he managed to get five fouls before he had five rebounds, or even five points.
But what impressed me was that he made adjustments. He didn't foul out. He found a way to contribute, and his eight rebounds in less than 19 minutes were more than starting big men Greg Monroe and Jason Maxiell had combined -- and they both played more than 20.
Drummond probably won't start against Harden's Rockets.

He might not start before Christmas.

But Detroit coach Lawrence Frank is going to have a hard time keeping a guy as big and as physically gifted as Drummond out of the starting lineup. Especially on a team that finished near the bottom in rebounds, and whose opponents' adjusted field goal percentage was 50 percent just a year ago.
"My goal isn't to start, my goal is to help this team win and do whatever the coaches and the veterans tell me to do," Drummond told me before the Heat game. "I'm learning and I just want to keep learning and getting better every day."

When I asked Frank about starting the rookie, he acknowledged that Drummond was coming along better than expected and then jokingly asked if I was his agent.

I'm not. I just know that when Drummond's played at least 18 minutes this preseason he's gotten 13.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg, and 1.5 bpg, while shooting 66 percent from the field. And he's gotten those numbers while playing 25 minutes once. For a guy to be doing all of that when he's barely on the floor, one can only imagine what he's going to be playing like when he's earned more run.
Just as one can only imagine what Harden is going to be like in his new home.

Morey called him a "foundational" player, which gave me some pause because Oklahoma City is still a favorite to win the championship. If a team loses a "foundational" player and is still a favorite to win it all, perhaps that player is not as "foundational." And Harden did shoot 37.5 percent from the field in the Finals.
But you just never know what a good player on a loaded team is going to do on his own. Steve Nash surprised us all in Phoenix by becoming a two-time MVP after his move from Dallas, where ownership thought his skills were in decline.
Nash's former teammate Amar'e Stoudemire surprised us all by becoming an MVP candidate in New York before owner Jim Dolan blew the squad up to add Carmelo Anthony.

If Harden handles the pressure of being the man, and drags Houston into the playoffs, certainly he would deserve some unexpected MVP consideration.
I doubt that will happen, but then again, Harden isn't supposed to be a Rocket in the first place. And the Tigers weren't supposed to get swept, and the NFL wasn't supposed to have replacement refs, and Lance wasn't supposed to … well … you get the idea. Neither Detroit nor Houston has made the playoffs since 2009, and at the start of the preseason, neither was expected to break that streak. At least not on paper. Then life ripped up that sheet of paper and left the rest of us with Durant's "Wow."

All of which is fine by me; sports is always better when it doesn't go along as planned.

HacheMan · Nov 1, 2012

[h=1]Finding the next big thing[/h][h=3]Plenty of this season's potential breakout stars sitting on waiver wire now

By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

When rounding out your roster in the final rounds of the draft, you're taking fliers on players who could potentially crack your starting lineup at some point during the season. Although it's clearly too early to determine whether or not they'll fulfill that promise, it's not too early to drop these late-round fillers for more enticing waiver-wire options. Never underestimate the importance of key early-season additions.

According to ESPN's spectacular research department, 21 of the top 100 players on last season's final Player Rater were owned in fewer than 50 percent of ESPN leagues on opening day 2011. Ryan Anderson: Owned in 12 percent of leagues. Paul George: 37 percent. Ersan Ilyasova: 0.3 percent. Goran Dragic: 0.18 percent. The bottom line? Game-changers are available on the waiver wire right now. One game might be too early to determine who they are, but as soon as we get an inkling, it's shrewd to add and drop liberally in these first few weeks in attempt to find this season's Anderson or Ilyasova.
[/h]
When making waiver-wire acquisitions this early in the season, I lean toward adding overall value to my team instead of addressing needs. As the early-season dust settles and your needs become more apparent, then your primary goal is filling those needs. For now, you want to maximize roster value. If you add a player who becomes a clear fantasy starter but doesn't fit your team, you'll be able to make the move to accommodate. Additionally, the actual stats a player posts in their first few games are almost secondary to minutes played and role with their team. If somebody like James Johnson, who traditionally boasts superb per-minute stats (1.4 steals and 1.1 blocks per game in 25.2 minutes last season), looks to have an opportunity to play more than was expected in Sacramento, I'll ignore his 1-for-8 shooting Wednesday night and focus on the three steals in 21 minutes from the Kings' starting lineup.

Let's examine some widely-available players who are making an early case for a roster spot:
Chandler Parsons, SF, Houston Rockets (2.6 percent owned): What's most encouraging about Parsons' performance Wednesday is the 42 minutes played. He's the type of multidimensional fantasy player who has the tools to be the ideal glue player in roto formats. As a rookie, he averaged 1.0 3-pointers, 1.2 steals and 0.5 blocks per game in 28.6 minutes, and with another year of development and increased run, those numbers should balloon and further entrench him as the type of NBA player better known in fantasy circles than in the real game.
Dorell Wright, Philadelphia 76ers (2.5 percent owned): Wright was painfully disappointing last season, but he was a top-30 fantasy player two seasons ago when he averaged 16.4 points, 2.4 3s, 1.5 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. He'll come off the bench and provide decent production in those four categories for the Sixers. However, while expecting him to replicate his career season is unrealistic, he is still an effective fantasy player, especially in leagues which count turnovers (1.0 turnovers per game in 25.2 minutes for his career). The Sixers like his positional versatility, and while his 3-point ability is his only above-average trait, he can do a little bit of everything, which makes him ideally suited for a complementary role and ill-suited for a starring role: the reason the wheels fell off in Golden State last season. He'll never be a fantasy star again, but he did put up 14 points, 7 rebounds, 2 3s, 2 steals and a block Wednesday night.
Gerald Green, SG/SF, Indiana Pacers (1.9 percent owned): With the news that Danny Granger is out indefinitely with knee soreness, Green started at small forward and earned a team-high 37 minutes Wednesday night. As mentioned, sometimes with just one game to analyze, you look past a mediocre stat line and focus on the opportunity, and it was there for Green. He was a reclamation project last season, averaging 12.9 points, 1.4 3s, 0.9 steals and 0.5 blocks in 25.2 minutes per game in 31 games for the New Jersey Nets, his first NBA action since 2009. He's a four-category player with tremendous upside as a long and athletic wing who can score, nail 3s and put up defensive numbers.

Jae Crowder, SF, Dallas Mavericks (1.2 percent owned): He's averaged 21.0 minutes with two 3-pointers in the Mavs' first two contests after a preseason in which this former high school quarterback and Big East Player of the Year posted some tasty stat lines (five steals, three blocks and a 3-pointer on Oct. 17, four 3s on Oct. 15th, four steals on Oct. 20). He draws comparisons to fellow undersized forward Kenneth Faried because of his impressive physique and motor (and Predator braids), although he's not as athletic but is a better shooter. His fantasy career could take a similar trajectory, as he'll have difficulty establishing consistent value out of the gate, but he seems destined to be a fantasy favorite given the 3/steal/block skill set he boasts. If you're looking for impact right now, he won't provide it consistently, but if you're in a keeper league or a deep league with room to stash a high-upside player, Crowder is about as intriguing as it gets. Based on his versatility on both the offensive and defensive end, I predict Crowder becomes a fantasy darling regardless of whether or not he becomes a household name.
Kosta Koufos, PF/C, Denver Nuggets (0.2 percent owned): Koufos improved his strength and conditioning in the offseason, knowing he had a good chance to start in the middle for Denver, and his hard work paid off. He was fifth in the league with 8.7 rebounds per game in preseason, and his 15.6 rebounds per 48 minutes ranked ninth in the league among players who averaged at least 15 minutes per game last season. He grabbed nine boards with a steal and a block in 30 minutes on Wednesday, and will be one of the better rebounders in the league if he continues to get starter's minutes.
A.J. Price, PG, Washington Wizards (0.1 percent owned): He's a one-month rental, but his per-game statistics to this point (career 0.9 3s, 0.6 steals in just 14.9 minutes per game) indicate that he has fantasy potential, as does the fact he jacked nine 3-point attempts on opening night. He drained only two, but notched six assists, played 29 minutes and will get plenty of run the next month until John Wall returns. He isn't much, but starting point guards who shoot 3s are a premium in the fantasy game, so if you're lacking the typical point guard stats of 3s, assists and steals, Price is a legit short-term option.
[h=3]Quick hits[/h]Brandon Rush, SG/SF, Golden State Warriors (2.9 percent owned) seemed comfortable and got plenty of looks, and his primary value lies in turnover leagues, where he's historically fantastic in providing healthy 3-point totals with some steals and blocks without the flubs (career 1.4 3s, 0.7 blocks, 0.6 steals on just 1.1 turnovers per game). His teammate Jarrett Jack, PG, Golden State Warriors (3.5 percent owned) played alongside Stephen Curry for significant stretches of Wednesday's game and finished with 10 points, 7 assists, a steal and a block in 30 minutes. He can play off the ball or handle the point, and will likely start for stretches of the season, given Curry's constantly problematic ankle, and provide steady points, assists, 3s and steals. Aaron Brooks, PG, Sacramento Kings (1.2 percent owned) earned 23 minutes and fouled out, compared to starter Isaiah Thomas' 25 minutes on Wednesday night. He's only a few years removed from averaging 19.6 points and 2.5 3s, is just 27 years old, and will put up counting stats if he's getting minutes. J.J. Hickson, PF/C, Portland Trail Blazers (9.3 percent owned) is starting at center and had 13 points, 10 boards, 2 blocks and a steal on Wednesday in 25 minutes. The Blazers' bench is thin, with rookie Meyers Leonard as his primary backup, so Hickson should continue the success he had late last season when he averaged 14.8 points, 9.2 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game in 14 April contests. Carl Landry, PF, Golden State Warriors (1.7 percent owned) is a capable scorer with a career 53.6 percent mark from the floor, and looks to be the primary big off the bench in Golden State after he dropped 17 points and 6 rebounds in 23 minutes Wednesday. He's only worth considering if you need efficient scoring, which can be difficult to find from widely-available players. Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, New Orleans Hornets (2.5 percent owned) had 17 points, 7 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 blocks in 27 minutes Wednesday, and with sound per-minute stats for his career (0.4 3s, 0.4 blocks, 0.8 steals per game in 20 minutes) could be in line for a productive season in the starting lineup. Carlos Delfino, SG/SF, Houston Rockets (1.6 percent owned) scored 15 points with 7 rebounds and 5 3s Wednesday, and looks to be the primary scoring option off the bench for the Rockets and in line to drain plenty of 3s in that role.
I'll be tweeting more observations about early-season box scores, so follow me for further analysis.

HacheMan · Nov 5, 2012

Fantasy Forecaster: Nov. 5-11

By Neil Tardy | Special to ESPN.com

One thing that makes fantasy hoops so enjoyable is the element of unpredictability. No matter how much time you put into researching your drafts and auctions, some players will catch you totally by surprise.

Friday being only the fourth day of the 2012-13 NBA season, it is of course far too early to draw conclusions about unproven players. But that doesn't mean we can't take the first handful of NBA games and make some initial observations. Most of the names in the Players to Watch section are guys on the fringes of fantasy relevance who did well in their season openers. We'll get to them in a moment.

Meanwhile, a team that's caught my eye is the New Orleans Hornets. In terms of fantasy value, the Hornets were already buzz-worthy due to the presence of No. 1 overall draft pick Anthony Davis. He didn't disappoint in his NBA debut, posting 21 points (including 9-of-9 from the line), seven rebounds, a steal and a block against the San Antonio Spurs on Oct. 31.

But beyond Davis, Greivis Vasquez dished out 13 assists; Al-Farouq Aminu racked up 17 points, seven boards and three blocks; and Robin Lopez contributed nine rebounds, three assists and a rejection. Sure, it's only one game, but Vasquez merits consideration in standard 10-team leagues, while Aminu and Lopez are worth watching in leagues of at least 12 teams. Vasquez is available in 47.2 percent of ESPN.com leagues; Aminu and Lopez are available in more than 90 percent of leagues.

By the way, for anyone aspiring to write about fantasy sports (each season I receive queries from multiple readers wondering how I lucked into this gig), don't do what I just did -- writing that a player is worth watching is an empty statement. I avoid it whenever possible. However, in this case, "considering" and "watching" seems like a reasonable strategy, because the Hornets play just twice in Week 2. That's how the schedule breaks sometimes.

[h=3]Week 2 at a glance[/h]

<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style>

<center> </center> Team <center> Mon
11/5 </center> <center> Tue
11/6 </center> <center> Wed
11/7 </center> <center> Thu
11/8 </center> <center> Fri
11/9 </center> <center> Sat
11/10 </center> <center> Sun
11/11 </center> <center> </center>

Atlanta
Hawks OFF OFF IND
R: 4 OFF MIA
R: 4 OFF @LAC
R: 4 G: 3
H: 2
R: 2

Boston
Celtics OFF OFF WSH
R: 4 OFF PHI
R: 1 @MIL
R: 5 OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 2

Brooklyn
Nets MIN
R: 5 OFF @MIA
R: 2 OFF @ORL
R: 2 OFF ORL
R: 1 G: 4
H: 2
R: 4

Charlotte
Bobcats OFF OFF PHX
R: 1 OFF @NO
R: 2 DAL
R: 1 OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 1

Chicago
Bulls OFF ORL
R: 4 OFF OKC
R: 5 OFF MIN
R: 8 OFF G: 3
H: 3
R: 4

Cleveland
Cavaliers @LAC
R: 2 OFF @GS
R: 6 OFF @PHX
R: 4 OFF @OKC
R: 3 G: 4
H: 0
R: 5

Dallas
Mavericks POR
R: 6 OFF TOR
R: 4 OFF @NY
R: 6 @CHA
R: 9 OFF G: 4
H: 2
R: 8

Denver
Nuggets OFF DET
R: 9 @HOU
R: 9 OFF UTA
R: 8 @GS
R: 10 OFF G: 4
H: 2
R: 10

Detroit
Pistons OFF @DEN
R: 5 @SAC
R: 7 OFF @OKC
R: 2 @HOU
R: 3 OFF G: 4
H: 0
R: 5

Golden State
Warriors @SAC
R: 9 OFF CLE
R: 8 OFF @LAL
R: 4 DEN
R: 8 OFF G: 4
H: 2
R: 9

Houston
Rockets OFF OFF DEN
R: 8 OFF @MEM
R: 5 DET
R: 7 OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 5

Indiana
Pacers @SA
R: 6 OFF @ATL
R: 5 OFF @MIN
R: 7 WSH
R: 6 OFF G: 4
H: 1
R: 8

Los Angeles
Clippers CLE
R: 9 OFF SA
R: 6 @POR
R: 7 OFF OFF ATL
R: 5 G: 4
H: 3
R: 9

Los Angeles
Lakers OFF OFF @UTA
R: 6 OFF GS
R: 8 OFF SAC
R: 10 G: 3
H: 2
R: 6

Memphis
Grizzlies UTA
R: 7 OFF @MIL
R: 6 OFF HOU
R: 6 OFF MIA
R: 5 G: 4
H: 3
R: 8

Miami
Heat PHX
R: 8 OFF BKN
R: 9 OFF @ATL
R: 6 OFF @MEM
R: 7 G: 4
H: 2
R: 9

Milwaukee
Bucks OFF OFF MEM
R: 5 OFF @WSH
R: 6 BOS
R: 4 OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 3

Minnesota
Timberwolves @BKN
R: 7 OFF ORL
R: 2 OFF IND
R: 3 @CHI
R: 1 OFF G: 4
H: 2
R: 5

New Orleans
Hornets OFF OFF PHI
R: 1 OFF CHA
R: 7 OFF OFF G: 2
H: 2
R: 1

New York
Knicks @PHI
R: 2 OFF OFF OFF DAL
R: 6 OFF OFF G: 2
H: 1
R: 1

Oklahoma City
Thunder OFF TOR
R: 8 OFF @CHI
R: 4 DET
R: 10 OFF CLE
R: 10 G: 4
H: 3
R: 10

Orlando
Magic OFF @CHI
R: 1 @MIN
R: 6 OFF BKN
R: 7 OFF @BKN
R: 7 G: 4
H: 1
R: 6

Philadelphia
76ers NY
R: 4 OFF @NO
R: 5 OFF @BOS
R: 3 @TOR
R: 3 OFF G: 4
H: 1
R: 5

Phoenix
Suns @MIA
R: 4 OFF @CHA
R: 8 OFF CLE
R: 8 @UTA
R: 6 OFF G: 4
H: 1
R: 8

Portland
Trail Blazers @DAL
R: 4 OFF OFF LAC
R: 4 OFF SA
R: 6 OFF G: 3
H: 2
R: 3

Sacramento
Kings GS
R: 8 OFF DEN
R: 8 OFF SA
R: 6 OFF @LAL
R: 4 G: 4
H: 3
R: 8

San Antonio
Spurs IND
R: 7 OFF @LAC
R: 6 OFF @SAC
R: 10 @POR
R: 9 OFF G: 4
H: 1
R: 10

Toronto
Raptors OFF @OKC
R: 3 @DAL
R: 4 OFF OFF PHI
R: 1 OFF G: 3
H: 1
R: 1

Utah
Jazz @MEM
R: 6 OFF LAL
R: 6 OFF @DEN
R: 9 PHX
R: 8 OFF G: 4
H: 2
R: 9

Washington
Wizards OFF OFF @BOS
R: 3 OFF MIL
R: 5 @IND
R: 4 OFF G: 3
H: 1
R: 3

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
"R" matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup), and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories, and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the right lists the team's total number of games scheduled ("G") as well as home games ("H"), and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule ("R").

The Hornets are joined in relative idleness by the New York Knicks, who also have only two games. However, all other teams have at least three games, and 18 NBA teams play four times in Week 2. With the Los Angeles Lakers struggling to implement the Princeton offense, I really like the Golden State Warriors' schedule, but Andrew Bogut owners should note that coach Mark Jackson won't use him in back-to-back games in the early season. The final two games of the Warriors' four-game set (@SAC, CLE, @LAL, DEN) come on consecutive nights.

[h=3]Players to watch[/h]
Jamal Crawford, PG/SG, Los Angeles Clippers (CLE, SA, @POR, ATL): Crawford, as he has been known to do over the years, erupted in his Clippers debut. The veteran rang up 29 points, including three 3-pointers, in just 30 minutes of action against the Memphis Grizzlies on Oct. 31. It's tough to gauge Crawford by the schedule -- if he's feeling it, he's capable of torching any defense. Still, matchups against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Portland Trail Blazers, young teams with shallow benches, seem promising enough. Plus, this set -- with games on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday -- plays well in leagues that allow daily lineup changes. Crawford can still be had in about 30 percent of ESPN.com leagues. He's worth using here.

Carlos Delfino, SG/SF, Houston Rockets (DEN, @MEM, DET): James Harden wasn't the only player enjoying his first game with the Rockets. Delfino -- no doubt getting some feeds from Harden -- knocked down five 3s and added seven boards against the Detroit Pistons on Oct. 31. It's a bit concerning that Delfino accomplished all this in just 24 minutes -- he'll need a bit more playing time to sustain fantasy relevance even in deep leagues. But even as a reserve, it's not tough to imagine Delfino being the third-leading scorer (behind Harden and Jeremy Lin) on this roster. Both he and Chandler Parsons (11 points, seven rebounds and six assists versus the Pistons) are available in more than 90 percent of ESPN.com leagues and are, ugh, worth watching. I'd be more inclined to use Delfino in Week 2, given the rematch with the Pistons and the fact that the Denver Nuggets surrendered by far the most treys in 2011-12.

Gerald Green, SG/SF, Indiana Pacers (@SA, @ATL, @MIN, WAS): Danny Granger's knee problem will likely result in more responsibility on the offensive end for players like Paul George and David West. At least we saw that in the Pacers' opener versus the Toronto Raptors on Oct. 31. However, Green is the guy replacing Granger in the starting lineup and seeing the big minutes boost. Though he only had six points in Toronto, Green played 37 minutes. I do think he's a worthy add in leagues of at least 12 teams, though I'm not sure I like this four-game set; Spurs, Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves opponents were all below average in 3s made last season.

J.J. Hickson, PF/C, Portland Trail Blazers (@DAL, LAC, SA): Hickson and rookie Meyers Leonard saw about the same number of minutes in the opener versus the Lakers on Oct. 31, but Hickson did far more damage (13 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks). Again, relying on last season's stats, this is a tough set for him. Dallas Mavericks opponents were dead last in blocks, while Clippers opponents were only 25th.

Jason Richardson, SG/SF, Philadelphia 76ers (NY, @NO, @BOS, @TOR): J-Rich had only 10 points in the opener against the Nuggets on Oct. 31, but adding four steals, three blocks and a couple of 3s made it a sweet fantasy line. Dorell Wright (14 points, seven rebounds, two steals, two 3s) also had a nice first game; however, given that Richardson played the greater minutes (37 to Wright's 28), I'd look to him first in deeper leagues. While only Knicks opponents really excelled from distance last season (ninth in 3s), this seems like a decent schedule. The Raptors might actually be the toughest matchup here, as Toronto opponents were only 22nd in points and 23rd in 3s in 2011-12.

Luke Ridnour, PG/SG, Minnesota Timberwolves (@BKN, ORL, IND, @CHI): Ridnour is a popular early add for fantasy owners -- his availability in ESPN.com leagues is down to about 45 percent. As a starter last season, the veteran averaged 12.1 points, 4.8 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.9 3s. However, considering that Chicago Bulls and Pacers opponents were both in the bottom six in dimes in 2011-12, and that the Brooklyn Nets should be much improved, there are probably better weeks than this to activate Ridnour.

Tristan Thompson, PF/C, Cleveland Cavaliers (@LAC, @GS, @PHO, @OKC): Thompson started his sophomore season impressively, posting 12 points, 10 rebounds and -- surprisingly -- five assists against the Washington Wizards on Oct. 30. One thing Thompson didn't do in that game was block a shot -- and he'll probably struggle for rejections in the week ahead, given that Suns and Clippers opponents were in the bottom six in blocks last season.

HacheMan · Nov 5, 2012

George, Irving, Gay lead Week 2 Fastbreak bets

By Tom Carpenter
ESPN.com

The NBA season is only three days old, but it's already been filled with unexpected twists and turns. To begin with, James Harden went from reigning Sixth Man of the Year for the Oklahoma City Thunder to raining down 37 points on the Detroit Pistons in his debut as the Houston Rockets' new franchise player.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc upon the East Coast and made it impossible for the Brooklyn Nets to host their new crosstown rival New York Knicks in their planned season opener at the Barclays Center, which -- though completely meaningless compared with the real-world problems the hurricane caused -- cost many teams in Fantasyland a game for those who set their weekly lineups before the postponement was announced.
Then, whether for good or bad, injuries already have played a role in how fantasy teams have started out of the gate. Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard and Andrew Bogut where among the dinged-up ballers who played through their injuries, but Eric Gordon and Andrew Bynum remain on the long-term shelf. On the other hand, the aging Manu Ginobili and Steve Nash are already hurt, and Deron Williams has bone spurs in his ankle, which he plans to play through all season.
That's a lot of food for thought when it comes to setting your lineups in any system but particularly when we try to set our weekly lineups in Fastbreak. On top of the injury issues, we'll have to factor in how many games will be played by each player/team in Week 2. You'll want to avoid guys who play for the Knicks and New Orleans Hornets, because they play just two games in Week 2, and you'll want to target those who will get in four games: Nets, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia Sixers, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz.
One reminder before we go on to quality salary-cap targets in the Fastbreak game is that player salaries will remain the same from Week 1 to Week 2. Once rosters are locked for Week 2, the new salaries will rise, fall or stay the same, based on how players have performed to that point. Again, we will focus on the salary-cap aspect of the Fastbreak game, but this information will be useful across all points-scoring fantasy basketball systems.
Guards
The top four contracts at guard -- Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Deron Williams and Dwyane Wade -- are also arguably the top four guard options in all points systems. So if you can afford their contracts, you'll want to have them in your lineups this week. Unfortunately, Harden plays just three contests, which means you may be better off targeting other options this week.
Paul George (8.6), Indiana Pacers: I pushed George all preseason, because I thought he was going to surpass Danny Granger as the Pacers' primary offensive weapon this season. That came to fruition without a coaching decision, as Granger is sidelined indefinitely due to his sore knee. The result in their season opener was a 22-point performance in the Fastbreak scoring system. Games like this should be a regular happening for George this season, plus he has four games each in Weeks 2 and 3.
Kyrie Irving (8.4), Cleveland Cavaliers: As he was in Week 1, Irving remains the best value at guard in Week 2. Surely, his market value will rise next week, though. He cranked out 28 Fastbreak points in his season debut and has four games in Week 2. The young Cavs play all four of those games on the road, but a player of Irving's caliber should continue to dominate wherever he is playing.
Jrue Holiday (8.3), Philadelphia 76ers: Holiday can contribute stats in every category but blocks, and his volume of stat production is going to take a significant leap this season. He already popped off 18 points in his first game of the season and is fully capable of exceeding that production on a regular basis. Holiday also makes for an excellent long-term investment in the Fastbreak game -- and an excellent trade target early on in any points system -- because the Sixers play four games each of the next three weeks.
Forwards
Once again, Kevin Durant and LeBron James remain the elite superstars of basically all points systems -- and this will be the lowest contract price you'll see for either of them for the rest of the season. Unfortunately, James will be a short-term play, because after getting in four games in Weeks 2 and 3, the Heat play just two games in Weeks 4 and 5. On the other hand, Durant plays four games in three of the next four weeks and doesn't have a two-game set until Week 7. Don't forget that Carmelo Anthony, Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson have only two games this week, so you'll want to leave them off your rosters.
Rudy Gay (8.9), Memphis Grizzlies: I use "volume" a lot when discussing points leagues, because that's the biggest factor for success in these systems. Gay is as secure in that facet as just about anyone, as he takes a lot of shots and contributes in every statistical category. If you aren't going to shell out the big bucks for the big dogs, you may want to consider Gay, who can produce elite stats in the Fastbreak game at a reasonable price. However, keep in mind he plays just three games next week and two games in Week 4.
Gerald Wallace (8.5), Brooklyn Nets: When it comes to volume of shots, we probably aren't going to see Wallace among the better options on a regular basis, but that doesn't mean that Crash can't be a big factor in points leagues. In fact, his terrific combination of a high field goal percentage and big hustle stats should make him a solid contributor most weeks. The Nets play only three games in Week 3, but in Week 2 they get four, and though that includes a tough battle with the Miami Heat, they also get two shots at the lottery-bound Orlando Magic.
Kawhi Leonard (8.0), San Antonio Spurs: While contract prices for the elite players are still low, you should focus on using those guys. However, if you take a different angle and need to roll the dice on a cheap play, Leonard could help you out. He may not have ideal high-volume production each game, but his well-rounded game is a great fit for points leagues. In fact, he outperformed many so-called studs in his first game this season, when he piled up 26 points against the Hornets. He had only six in the next game, but despite the inconsistency, he should be a solid play if you need a cheap option in Week 2, since he has four games on the slate.
Center
You might need to pass on Dwight Howard, since he has only three games this week, but he has looked so good early on, he may still outperform all other centers who play an extra game in Week 2. However, it's more likely that other top-priced players who play four games -- like Al Jefferson, Marcin Gortat, Greg Monroe and Marc Gasol -- will post more points. Let's check out some price-saving options, if you need to save some pennies this week.
Roy Hibbert (8.7), Indiana Pacers: He may not have the same upside as some of the elite players, but Hibbert should provide a steady hand in points leagues just about every night due to his high field goal percentage and blocks totals. He posted 23 Fastbreak points in an ordinary performance in his season debut and should have little trouble posting 80-100 points over the course of four Week 2 games.
Nikola Pekovic (8.0), Minnesota Timberwolves: In 30 games as a starter last season, Pekovic averaged 15.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, 54.7 FG% and 74.2 FT%. Now Kevin Love is out of the mix to start the season, so we can expect Pekovic's volume to rise even higher. He isn't a big shot-blocker, but that doesn't really matter in points systems, because his overall production will be big. He's the safest cheap upside play at center in Fastbreak this week.

HacheMan · Nov 6, 2012

Good players on likely bad teams

By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

What are some of the leading factors that cause a player to be undervalued?

The No. 1 individual trait is always a low points-per-game average. Because we are trained from our earliest childhood basketball experiences to overemphasize scoring's importance, we fantasy basketball enthusiasts are often guilty of prizing one-dimensional players who score and do little else.

But once we get beyond the points bias, we get into team-wide bias -- when an individual player's value is artificially boosted or depressed due to the perception of his given team.

It's simply the laws of dynamics at work. Winning teams deservedly get more attention. Large-market teams get more attention whether they deserve it or not. Hype has an effect, especially at draft time.

That surplus of attention has an effect on players' fantasy fortunes. It's why a Los Angeles Lakers fan has to overpay for a Kobe Bryant or a Pau Gasol. Or a Miami Heat fan has to spend a first-rounder on Dwyane Wade.

Conversely, it's also why players like Anderson Varejao or Brandon Jennings invariably go a round or two lower than they should.

It's obviously early. Three or four games don't constitute much of a sample size. But some smaller-market teams -- and/or teams projected to land in the lottery -- are already starting to shift the market in fantasy.

Let's take a look at a few teams that are shaking things up right out of the gate.

(These stats don't include the Monday night games.)

[h=3]Houston Rockets[/h]
Heavy Rotation Players:
James Harden, SG: 41.7 MPG, 35.3 PTS, 6.3 REB, 6.3 AST, 2.3 3PM, 1.7 STL, .529 FG%, .818 FT%
Chandler Parsons, SF: 40.0 MPG, 8.7 PTS, 8.0 REB, 5.0 AST, 1.3 STL, 1.0 3PM
Jeremy Lin, PG: 37.7 MPG, 15.3 PTS, 7.3 AST, 5.7 REB, 2.3 STL, .917 FT%
Omer Asik, C: 34.7 MPG, 5.3 PTS, 14.3 REB, 1.7 BLK
Patrick Patterson, PF: 33.5 MPG. 10.5 PTS, 6.5 REB, 1.5 STL

Bench Players To Watch:
Carlos Delfino, SF/SG: 8.0 PTS, 4.3 REB, 2.0 3PM, 1.3 STL
Marcus Morris, PF: 12.0 PTS, 5.0 REB, 1.0 3PM
Royce White/Terrence Jones PF

In previous seasons, the Rockets' chief fantasy issue was depth, as in too much of it. As in too much mid-level, medium-upside talent up and down the roster. So statistical superstar Daryl Morey finally went young in an attempt to improve draft position, gather assets and hoard cap space to make a run at a marquee name or two.

Now with Harden's arrival, the plan is ahead of schedule.

The backcourt is set -- I'd go as far as "ossified"-- with two players on track to average 35-plus minutes per game for the foreseeable future. Asik (foul trouble willing) is locked into a 32-35 MPG role, the question being whether he can offer any offensive production of remote note (the answer so far is no).

Both forward positions offer untapped fantasy opportunity.

Chandler Parsons is getting a bushel of minutes at present, and he's producing. But it wasn't too long ago that Carlos Delfino was one of fantasy's best box-score-stuffing success stories.

Delfino had visa issues in the preseason and didn't really get it going until late October. Parsons-Delfino could devolve into a value-killing timeshare, or it could work out with Delfino filling the type of role Harden performed back in Oklahoma City. Don't scoff; Delfino can back up the two. He has more to offer than 3-pointers, if he can stay healthy.

Power forward could be a gold mine, or regress into four-headed statistical miasma.

With Asik averaging only 5.7 points per game, there's a lot of pressure on the Rockets' power forwards to provide some interior scoring punch. If Patterson falters, the Rockets have multiple youngsters with upside to burn in White, Morris and Jones.

Or the Rockets could always make another trade. They've done it before. As in about 10 days ago.

[h=3]Phoenix Suns[/h]
Heavy Rotation Players:
Goran Dragic, PG: 35.3 MPG, 14.7 PTS, 8.7 AST, 1.7 STL, 1.0 3PM
Marcin Gortat, C: 35.0 MPG, 13.3 PTS, 12.0 REB, 4.0 BLK, .543 FG%
Luis Scola, PF: 31.0 MPG, 17.3 PTS, 9.0 REB, 1.7 STL, 1.3 BLK, .533 FG%, .833 FT%
Jared Dudley, SF/SG: 28.3 MPG, 5.3 PTS, 0.7 3PM, .316 FG%
Michael Beasley, SF/PF: 28.3 MPG, 15.3 PTS, 5.7 REB, 1.3 3PM, 1.0 STL

Bench players to watch:
Shannon Brown, SG: 20.3 MPG, 9.3 PTS, 2.0 AST
Markieff Morris, PF: 17.0 MPG, 4.7 PTS, 3.3 REB

Here are some fertile fantasy conditions: no franchise player, lottery-bound in a tough conference, and four players on track to average between 28 to 35 minutes per game.

Contrast the Suns' distribution of minutes with a deep playoff-bound team such as the Celtics, who currently feature seven players averaging at least 22 minutes per night. (And that number will climb to eight when Avery Bradley returns.)

Depth is fantastic when constructing a team to advance deep into the postseason, but it's a real buzzkill for said team's ongoing fantasy prospects.

Dragic and Gortat were two of my most-drafted players of this preseason. Their ADPs seemed criminally low. Why did they drop? Both players were recent additions, hailing from (A) other smaller market teams and (B) foreign countries. Both players also only became full-time starters over the past season or so. And no one nationally was talking up Phoenix.

Then you also add a couple of change-of-scenery bounceback candidates in Scola and Beasley. In this lineup, Beasley should evolve into a role as the Suns' go-to-guy in crunch time, and Scola will, as always, continue to provide cheap blocks and boards.

[h=3]Orlando Magic[/h]
Heavy Rotation Players:
Jameer Nelson, PG: 35.0 MPG, 9.0 PTS, 7.0 AST, 4.0 REB, 1.0 3PM, 1.0 STL (currently day-to-day)
Arron Afflalo, SG: 35.0 MPG, 14.5 PTS, 1.5 3PM, 5.0 REB
J.J. Redick, SG: 34.0 MPG, 22.5 PTS, 6.0 AST, 3.0 3PM, 1.0 STL, .640 FG%
Glen Davis, PF/C: 33.0 MPG, 25.5 PTS, 9.0 REB, 1.0 STL, 1.0 BLK
E'Twaun Moore, SG: 31.5 MPG, 14.0 PTS, 4.5 AST, 4.0 REB, 2.0 3PN, 1.5 STL, .571 FG%
Nikola Vucevic, PF/C: 26.5 MPG, 12.0 PTS, 8.5 REB, 1.0 STL, 1.0 BLK, .545 FG%

Bench Players To Watch:
Josh McRoberts, PF: 23.0 MPG, 7.0 PTS, 7.0 REB
Gustavo Ayon, PF (Out): 9.0 MPG, 0.0 PTS, 4.0 REB
Andrew Nicholson, PF: 3.5 PTS
Maurice Harkless, SF (Out)
Al Harrington, PF (Out)
Hedo Turkoglu, SF (Out)

Are the Magic getting the last laugh? After they were collectively guffawed out of the building by every NBA observer in existence? Well, no one here's going to make anyone forget Dwight Howard. But the Magic could be primed to provide a couple of heartwarming little fantasy success stories (At least it will be heartwarming for me; I'm a sucker for post one-sided-trade team-wide revenge seasons.).

As of this writing, the Magic sport six players notching at least 26.5 minutes a game. It's a mirage. Merely temporary. Because the Magic also have six players nursing injuries. And those six have the potential to play their way onto the fantasy radar. Some are grizzled vets (Harrington, Turkoglu). Some are unproven but carry buzz (Harkless, Ayon).

As Redick and Moore inevitably cool off, and Nelson and company heal up, the Magic's teamwide fantasy mojo will become more difficult to peg. There are a ton of variables at play here. This is essentially an expansion team. They're constructed to garner a high lottery pick for a lengthy rebuild.

They could go all-young with Harkless and Nicholson. Or they could go for instantaneously semi-respectable with Harrington and Turkoglu. Or something in between. It will be a while before I totally trust what's going on here.

[h=3]New Orleans Hornets[/h]
Heavy Rotation Players:
Greivis Vasquez, PG: 36.7 MPG, 13.0 PTS, 9.7 AST 4.7 REB
Ryan Anderson, PF: 34.0 MPG, 14.0 PTS, 8.0 REB, 2.3 3PM
Al-Farouq Aminu, SF: 32.7 MPG, 13.3 PTS. 7.0 REB, 2.0 STL, 1.7 BLK, .594 FG%
Robin Lopez, C: 31.3 MPG. 14.3 PTS, 7.7 REB, 2.0 BLK, .556 FG%
Austin Rivers, SG/PG: 29.0 MPG, 6.0 PTS, 3.3 AST. 1.7 STL
Anthony Davis, PF/C (Out): 21.5 MPG, 14.5 PTS, 6.5 REB, 1.5 BLK, 1.0 STL

Bench Players To Watch:
Eric Gordon, SG (Out)

When your franchise player can't get on the court, and is having words like "microfracture" mentioned, it's going to open up production up and down the rest of that team's lineup. And because the Hornets carry a lack of depth at multiple positions (every position but power forward), it points toward a highly concentrated mix of minutes and touches at the top of their rotation.

A small confession: I've had a small roto crush on Aminu since he came into the league. He's got the sort of athleticism that translates into across-the-board box scores. If he stays around 30 MPG, and can hit the occasional 3-pointer, Aminu could crack the top 40 on the Player Rater.

I'm a little concerned about the roles in the frontcourt, especially Ryan Anderson coming off the bench. Davis will eventually garner the lion's share of frontcourt minutes. My guess is that Robin Lopez's playing time will suffer as a result, probably dropping into the 27-30 MPG range.

Austin Rivers is a rising X-factor. There's a growing possibility that Eric Gordon will be shelved for the duration. Rivers has struggled from the field, but he's recovering from some (less serious) injuries of his own (two ankle sprains).

With only Roger Mason pushing for minutes, it's entirely possible that Rivers could have a long-term 30 minutes per game delivered to him on a silver platter. With no playoff expectations, Rivers would be given every opportunity to stick as the starter.

As a lottery pick, Rivers carries some pretty high expectations of his own. Scouts and personnel men seem divided on Rivers, but I'm guessing the upside is there.

HacheMan · Nov 7, 2012

[h=1]Reality check[/h][h=3]Are Holiday, Redick, Sanders, Lin as good as their hot starts say?[/h]
By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

For this season's inaugural look at the Player Rater, I thought we'd take a peek at the rankings based on per-game averages to see which players might be much, much better than we thought they'd be. Let's keep in mind, however, the volatility of the Player Rater this early in the season. Make 4.5 3-pointers per game while knocking down two thirds of your attempts through four games (I'm looking at you here, O.J. Mayo), and you're liable to find yourself much higher in the rankings than you probably should be.

(current ranking based on per-game averages in parentheses)

Jrue Holiday, PG, Philadelphia 76ers (11): What we've seen out of Holiday so far this season is, of course, subject to change once Andrew Bynum returns to the 76ers lineup. Bynum is a major presence who will entirely change the way the team plays on both ends of the floor, so it's important not to read too much into what happens without him. Still, basketball fans have been waiting for Holiday to break out for years, and in the midst of Philly's early-season struggles (two losses to the New York Knicks after an impressive beat-down of the Denver Nuggets), Holiday has been a bright spot. He can't keep making over 50 percent of his 3s, but he's shown an increased ability to get to the line, and seems to be maxing out his capabilities as a passer as well. This all bodes well, as does his improvement at the line and his consistency as a source of steals. Holiday is an extremely talented player; it's surprising to see him ahead of guys like Rajon Rondo, Ty Lawson, and Russell Westbrook in the rankings, but it's not the absurd reach it would have seemed to be a few weeks ago. We'll see over the coming weeks whether he can sustain it.

Anderson Varejao, PF/C, Cleveland Cavaliers (18): Varejao has missed gigantic chunks of five out of the eight seasons he's been in the NBA prior to this one, so it's not like he's ever going to be a sure thing, but I think at this stage we're long past the point where we should be surprised in the least at how productive he is. Is he capable of putting up 14 points and 15 rebounds per game over the course of an entire season? Probably not, but he can certainly post a robust double-double as the dive-man in an onslaught of screen-and-rolls with Kyrie Irving. He's been posting solid rebound rates for years, and has a knack for racking up just enough steals and blocks to be a factor in those areas as well. You could try to sell high on him out of fear that he'll get hurt, but it's worth reminding yourself that predicting injuries is a tricky enterprise best left to, well, probably no one. You can expect his percentages, obviously, to fall off a bit, but he's more than capable of being one of the premier fantasy big men all season.

Jeremy Lin, PG, Houston Rockets (24): It's hard to say if Lin's high ranking through three games is a surprise or not; certainly, if you believe Lin's performance last season was no fluke (and I do), then his numbers so far this season are no surprise to you. On the other hand, his percentages are very low so far, and those declines are being offset by production in rebounds and steals that, while encouraging, feels a bit unsustainable. You can add to those concerns the fact that he hasn't gotten to the line with the same vigor he did during his ascendance last season either. Basically, when you add it all up, it seems like Lin is going to be a little worse than he's been so far this season. Even so, it looks like he's going to be a top-50 fantasy option if he stays healthy, and that alone makes him an excellent value for where he was drafted.

J.J. Redick, SG, Orlando Magic (35): I wrote about his elite production in 3s and free throw percentage in the shooting guards preview in our draft kit, but it's worth repeating: Redick is an ideal player in fantasy leagues. He doesn't hurt you in any way and provides value in categories where you probably need it. What we all may have missed is the upside. Redick has averaged 6.3 assists through his first three games. Among shooting guards who played as many minutes per game as Redick last season, only Andre Iguodala, Stephen Curry, Gordon Hayward, and James Harden had a better assist rate, so this is no fluke. Yes, he'll cool off a little, and might see a slight decline in minutes once Jameer Nelson returns to the lineup, but it's clear at this point that Redick is going to be an important player in fantasy leagues; I'd expect to see him in the top 50 at the end of the season.

Larry Sanders, PF/C, Milwaukee Bucks (44): Guys who block shots are always valuable in fantasy leagues, but when they start to flash a halfway decent offensive game, that's when we really need to pay attention. Sanders, in the early going, seems to be a bigger part in the Bucks' rotation than guys like Samuel Dalembert and Ekpe Udoh (and Drew Gooden, who is already racking up DNP-CDs), and given his ability to rebound, block shots, and finish around the rim, he's got a chance to provide big value all season if he can keep playing somewhere around 25 minutes per game. The Bucks have been good so far, and it's only two games, but Sanders has been a major part of that. If you need blocks, and have some space on your roster, it's a good bet that Sanders will continue to be worth a spot on your team all season.

Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, New Orleans Hornets (45): I haven't always been a fan of Aminu's game, but early on this season he's beginning to remind me of a younger Gerald Wallace. Remember, before Wallace left Sacramento early in his career, he was seen as a great athlete who still needed to figure out how to play basketball. When he got to Charlotte as a 22-year-old, in spite of a less-than-effective offensive game, he averaged 1.7 steals and 1.3 blocks and became a valuable player in fantasy leagues. Early on this season, Aminu's athleticism has made him an effective two-way player, and while I'm less excited about his offensive potential, I'm all-in on his defense. He's capable of staying north of 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks all season, but even numbers slightly lower than those would make him a steal in fantasy leagues. He's removed the ill-advised 3-pointer from his arsenal and is crashing the glass more effectively than ever before. If he's still available in your league (getting less likely by the minute), pick him up ASAP.

HacheMan · Nov 7, 2012

Danny Granger out three months

INDIANAPOLIS -- Indiana needs to find a long-term replacement for Danny Granger.

Team officials announced Wednesday that the one-time All-Star forward is expected to miss up to three months after receiving an injection in his left knee to treat patellar tendinosis.
Losing Granger for an extended period is a big blow for a team that entered this season hoping to contend for an Eastern Conference title. He was the Pacers' top scorer last season (18.7 points) and is typically their first option in late-game situations, too.
All the Pacers can do now is move on.
"We still have a heck of a team," coach Frank Vogel said before Saturday night's home opener. "We've still got a great deal of talent, a great deal of depth. So my hopes are very high that we'll excel without Danny."
Granger originally hurt the knee during May's playoff run. Vogel said the soreness dissipated for a while, then returned while Granger was working out during the offseason.

[h=4]Granger In Decline[/h]

Entering this season, Danny Granger has been a player in decline. Although only 28 years old, Granger has had a decline in his scoring average and field goal percentage in each of the last four seasons.[h=4]<center>Danny Granger, last 4 seasons</center>[/h]

Season	PPG	FG pct.
2008-09	25.8	44.7
2009-10	24.1	42.8
2010-11	20.5	42.5
2011-12	18.7	41.6
-- ESPN Stats & Information

In September, Granger said he underwent blood-platelet treatment, which he described as a painful experience that could take months to fully heal.
"It hurts," Granger said in mid-October. "They take the blood out and inject it back in, so it hurts. But it helps you heal tremendously."
Apparently, Granger hasn't reaped those benefits yet. He has not played in any of Indiana's first four regular season games, though he did make one preseason appearance. At Cleveland, on Oct. 23, Granger scored nine points in 13 minutes.
Without him, things haven't always gone smoothly.
The Pacers (2-2) are averaging 20.3 turnovers a game, a number Vogel has already acknowledged needs to be cut significantly.
Vogel is also trying to figure out lineups and rotations without Granger. Gerald Green, signed as a free agent in the offseason, started the first three games. He's scoring 9.8 points and grabbing 4.3 rebounds, but giving up 2.5 turnovers per game. On Monday night at San Antonio, Sam Young moved into the starting lineup and finished with three points and three rebounds in a 101-79 loss.
Granger's absence has been more notable in the closing moments of games.
Indiana looked out of sync in the final minute last Friday at Charlotte and couldn't take advantage of several chances to win at lowly Charlotte. Instead, they wound up losing 90-89 -- the Bobcats' first win in 24 games. The next night, against Sacramento, Indiana missed two shots at the end of regulation and two more at the end of the first overtime before finally getting past Sacramento 106-98 in double overtime.
Even opponents have noticed a difference.
"Maybe if you have (Granger) he closes that (Charlotte) game out," Kings coach Keith Smart said. "Not having your go-to guy can change a lot of things."
But instead of building this team around a superstar, the Pacers decided to reinforce their bench. They're hoping that will take them deeper into the playoffs than last season's second-round exit against Miami.
That decision could serve them well now.
David West, Paul George and George Hill are all scoring in double figures. All-Star center Roy Hibbert is averaging 8.8 points 7.8 rebounds and 3.3 blocks. And Tyler Hansbrough and Lance Stephenson have given the Pacers good minutes off the bench.
So Vogel remains optimistic.
Granger has averaged 18.2 points and 5.2 rebounds in seven NBA seasons.

HacheMan · Nov 7, 2012

Lowry injures ankle; McGee playing well

By Neil Tardy, Special to ESPN.com

Let's hope Kyle Lowry's injury only looked bad.

Lowry suffered a right ankle sprain when he stepped on Serge Ibaka's foot following a made basket late in the first half Tuesday against the Oklahoma City Thunder. If you've seen the video, you know that Lowry's discomfort was audible. He had to be helped off the court, and he didn't return.

The new Toronto Raptors point guard is off to an incredible start, averaging 23.7 points, 7.0 assists, 3.7 steals and 2.7 3-pointers over his first three games.

While there was no word on Lowry's condition as of late Tuesday, it's safe to assume that Jose Calderon will replace Lowry when the Raptors visit the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday. With 12 other NBA games going, Lowry owners in daily leagues should have ample lineup alternatives.

[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• Rodney Stuckey shot poorly again, but considering he was 1-for-23 from the field over his first three games, a 5-of-17 night (for 16 points) against the Denver Nuggets is definitely progress. He also got to the line (though he went only 5-of-7) and contributed from long range (2-of-6 from downtown). Though Stuckey may still be dealing with migraines, the big issue is his evolving role with the Detroit Pistons. The offense now runs primarily through second-year point guard Brandon Knight, so Stuckey must figure out how to impact the game without having the ball in his hands as much. I can understand owners in standard 10-team formats dumping Stuckey, but in leagues of 12 or more teams, or in points formats that don't penalize shooting percentage, you'll have to be patient. Stuckey will be a solid scorer this season, and he should be a factor in the 3-pointers category.

• E'Twaun Moore had another nice start. Filling in for the injured Jameer Nelson (hamstring, groin), Moore managed only two assists versus the Chicago Bulls, but deep-leaguers will take the other stats (17 points on 7-of-13 shooting, 5 rebounds, 3 3-pointers). Expect the second-year pro to start again Wednesday, when the Orlando Magic visit the Minnesota Timberwolves.

• JaVale McGee is making the most of his limited playing time; he put up 16 points and three blocks in just 18 minutes against the Pistons. That followed a 16-point, 9-rebound showing against the Miami Heat on Nov. 3. And surprisingly, McGee is 6-of-7 from the stripe so far. Rejections will keep McGee fantasy-relevant -- he has eight blocks in his first four games -- but fantasy owners should not expect him get more minutes. Kosta Koufos continues to start, and he produced his best showing of the young season Tuesday (14 points, 5 boards, 3 blocks).

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• There's no word yet whether Josh Smith (ankle) can play against the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday, but the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that while "J-Smoove" was limited on Tuesday, he did seem to be near full speed as he worked on his post moves after practice.

• There is no timetable for Anthony Davis (concussion) to return. He's not expected to play against the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday. The New Orleans Hornets are in a 10-day stretch in which they play just twice, so Davis could be sidelined awhile without missing much action. Starting center Robin Lopez (17.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in his past two games) has greatly picked up his production in Davis' absence.

• Shawn Marion (knee) is expected to miss at least the next three games. Fortunately, the Mavericks play Wednesday, Friday and Saturday this week, nights when fantasy owners in daily lineup leagues should have ample lineup options. It will be interesting to see how Jae Crowder, the impressive Mavs rookie, fares with the extra minutes.

• With Gerald Henderson (foot) expected to miss 2-4 weeks, Ramon Sessions becomes an intriguing option in most formats. Sessions had 22 points in 28 minutes against the Mavericks on Nov. 3, the game in which Henderson was injured. The Charlotte Bobcats, who host the Phoenix Suns, haven't hesitated to pair Sessions with Kemba Walker early on.

• After missing the opener because of a calf injury, Kevin Seraphin had 19 points (8-of-9 from the field) and seven rebounds against the Boston Celtics on Saturday. The Washington Wizards play the Celtics again, this time in Boston, on Wednesday. At least until Nene's return, Seraphin should continue to produce for the short-handed Wizards.

• Larry Sanders has quietly impressed for the Milwaukee Bucks, averaging 13.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.0 blocks over his first two games. The rail-thin Sanders -- he's listed at 6-11, 235 pounds -- has actually been getting most of his work in the post, as starter Samuel Dalembert has been used sparingly. With the Bucks facing Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and the Memphis Grizzlies, I'd expect fewer minutes for Sanders. But let's wait and see.

• Isaiah Thomas owners can't like where this is headed. Thomas played just 21 minutes against the Golden State Warriors on Nov. 5. While Aaron Brooks saw only 20 minutes that night, he logged 35 against the Pacers on Saturday. The Sacramento Kings beat writer for the Sacramento Bee has already said it's inevitable that Brooks emerges as the starter. The Kings host the struggling and already road-weary Pistons, but again, with 12 other NBA games Wednesday, fantasy owners can easily avoid this timeshare for now.

Analyst	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Carpenter	Raymond Felton	Eric Gordon	Brandon Roy	Kris Humphries	Dwight Howard
Cregan	Steve Nash	Eric Gordon	Danilo Gallinari	Blake Griffin	Dwight Howard
Landman	Tony Parker	Arron Afflalo	Tyreke Evans	Blake Griffin	Andrew Bynum
Brian McKitish	Jose Calderon	Kevin Martin	Tyreke Evans	Blake Griffin	Dwight Howard
Tardy	Steve Nash	Arron Afflalo	Gerald Wallace	Ryan Anderson	Glen Davis
Whitling	Monta Ellis	Andre Iguodala	Danny Granger	Blake Griffin	Dwight Howard

Rank	Player	PG Rank	SG Rank	SF Rank	PF Rank	C Rank
1	Kevin Durant, SF, OKC			1
2	LeBron James, SF, MIA			2
3	Chris Paul, PG, LAC	1
4	Russell Westbrook, PG, OKC	2
5	Deron Williams, PG, BKN	3
6	Josh Smith, PF/SF, ATL			3	1
7	Dwyane Wade, SG, MIA		1
8	Al Jefferson, C/PF, UTAH				2	1
9	Kyrie Irving, PG, CLE	4
10	DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, SAC				3	2
11	Kobe Bryant, SG, LAL		2
12	James Harden, SG, HOU		3
13	Ty Lawson, PG/SG, DEN	5	4
14	LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, POR				4	3
15	Marc Gasol, C, MEM					4
16	Pau Gasol, PF/C, LAL				5	5
17	Serge Ibaka, C/PF, OKC				6	6
18	Kevin Love, PF/C, MIN				7	7
19	Dwight Howard, C, LAL					8
20	Carmelo Anthony, SF/PF, NY			4	8
21	Rajon Rondo, PG, BOS	6
22	Andrew Bynum, C, PHI					9
23	Goran Dragic, PG, PHO	7
24	Al Horford, C/PF, ATL				9	10
25	Rudy Gay, SF, MEM			5
26	Brandon Jennings, PG, MIL	8
27	Monta Ellis, PG/SG, MIL	9	5
28	Paul Millsap, PF, UTAH				10
29	Dirk Nowitzki, PF, DAL				11
30	Greg Monroe, PF/C, DET				12	11
31	Blake Griffin, PF, LAC				13
32	Marcin Gortat, C, PHO					12
33	Steve Nash, PG, LAL	10
34	Mike Conley, PG, MEM	11
35	Andre Iguodala, SF/SG, DEN		6	6
36	Paul Pierce, SF/SG, BOS		7	7
37	David Lee, PF/C, GS				14	13
38	Paul George, SF/SG, IND		8	8
39	Nicolas Batum, SF/SG, POR		9	9
40	Anthony Davis, PF/C, NO				15	14
41	Roy Hibbert, C, IND					15
42	Tony Parker, PG, SA	12
43	Ersan Ilyasova, SF/PF, MIL			10	16
44	Danny Granger, SF, IND			11
45	Joe Johnson, SG/SF, BKN		10	12
46	Stephen Curry, PG/SG, GS	13	11
47	Ryan Anderson, PF, NO				17
48	Chris Bosh, PF/C, MIA				18	16
49	Joakim Noah, C/PF, CHI				19	17
50	Jrue Holiday, PG, PHI	14
51	John Wall, PG, WSH	15
52	Tyreke Evans, PG/SG/SF, SAC	16	12	13
53	Kenneth Faried, PF, DEN				20
54	Brook Lopez, C, BKN					18
55	Kevin Garnett, PF/C, BOS				21	19
56	Kyle Lowry, PG, TOR	17
57	Danilo Gallinari, SF/PF, DEN			14	22
58	Wesley Matthews, SG/SF, POR		13	15
59	Marcus Thornton, SG, SAC		14
60	Damian Lillard, PG, POR	18
61	Tyson Chandler, C, NY					20
62	Klay Thompson, SG, GS		15
63	Zach Randolph, PF, MEM				23
64	Jeremy Lin, PG, HOU	19
65	Luol Deng, SF, CHI			16
66	Andrea Bargnani, C/PF, TOR				24	21
67	JaVale McGee, C, DEN					22
68	Arron Afflalo, SG, ORL		16
69	Carlos Boozer, PF, CHI				25
70	Gerald Wallace, SF/PF, BKN			17	26
71	Nikola Pekovic, C, MIN					23
72	Gordon Hayward, SG/SF, UTAH		17	18
73	Manu Ginobili, SG, SA		18
74	Raymond Felton, PG, NY	20
75	Eric Gordon, SG, NO		19
76	Isaiah Thomas, PG, SAC	21
77	Mo Williams, PG/SG, UTAH	22	20
78	Kris Humphries, PF, BKN				27
79	Lou Williams, PG/SG, ATL	23	21
80	Amare Stoudemire, C/PF, NY				28	24
81	Nene Hilario, C/PF, WSH				29	25
82	Kevin Martin, SG, OKC		22
83	O.J. Mayo, SG, DAL		23
84	Jason Terry, SG, BOS		24
85	Tim Duncan, PF/C, SA				30	26
86	Jeff Teague, PG, ATL	24
87	Glen Davis, PF/C, ORL				31	27
88	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, CHA			19
89	Rodney Stuckey, PG/SG, DET	25	25
90	Kawhi Leonard, PF/SG/SF, SA		26	20	32
91	Brandon Knight, PG/SG, DET	26	27
92	Anderson Varejao, PF/C, CLE				33	28
93	George Hill, PG/SG, IND	27	28
94	Michael Beasley, SF/PF, PHO			21	34
95	Kemba Walker, PG/SG, CHA	28	29
96	Andrei Kirilenko, SF/PF, MIN			22	35
97	Darren Collison, PG, DAL	29
98	Jameer Nelson, PG, ORL	30
99	Andrew Bogut, C, GS					29
100	Derrick Favors, PF, UTAH				36
101	Evan Turner, SG/SF, PHI		30	23
102	Omer Asik, C, HOU					30
103	Thaddeus Young, SF/PF, PHI			24	37
104	Jonas Valanciunas, C, TOR					31
105	Luis Scola, PF, PHO				38
106	Ray Allen, SG, MIA		31
107	Tristan Thompson, PF/C, CLE				39	32
108	David West, PF, IND				40
109	DeAndre Jordan, C, LAC					33
110	Byron Mullens, C/PF, CHA				41	34
111	J.R. Smith, SG/SF, NY		32	25
112	Bismack Biyombo, PF/C, CHA				42	35
113	Elton Brand, PF, DAL				43
114	Samuel Dalembert, C, MIL					36
115	Greivis Vasquez, PG, NO	31
116	Chris Kaman, C/PF, DAL				44	37
117	J.J. Hickson, PF/C, POR				45	38
118	Mario Chalmers, PG, MIA	32
119	Dion Waiters, SG, CLE		33
120	DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF, TOR		34	26
121	Thomas Robinson, PF, SAC				46
122	Ricky Rubio, PG, MIN	33
123	Luke Ridnour, PG/SG, MIN	34	35
124	Harrison Barnes, SF, GS			27
125	Jose Calderon, PG, TOR	35
126	Brandon Bass, PF/C, BOS				47	39
127	Tony Allen, SG, MEM		36
128	Derrick Rose, PG, CHI	36
129	Ben Gordon, SG, CHA		37
130	Jordan Crawford, SG, WSH		38
131	Jamal Crawford, SG/PG, LAC	37	39
132	Al Harrington, PF, ORL				48
133	Jose Juan Barea, PG/SG, MIN	38	40
134	Dorell Wright, SF, PHI			28
135	Wilson Chandler, SF/SG, DEN		41	29
136	Carlos Delfino, SF/SG, FA		42	30
137	Spencer Hawes, C, PHI					40
138	Jared Dudley, SF/SG, PHO		43	31
139	Chauncey Billups, PG/SG, LAC	39	44
140	Gustavo Ayon, PF, ORL				49
141	Antawn Jamison, PF, LAL				50
142	Emeka Okafor, C, WSH					41
143	Gerald Henderson, SG/SF, CHA		45	32
144	Nick Young, SG, PHI		46
145	Jarrett Jack, PG/SG, GS	40	47
146	Ramon Sessions, PG, CHA	41
147	Bradley Beal, SG, WSH		48
148	Jason Richardson, SG/SF, PHI		49	33
149	Derrick Williams, PF, MIN				51
150	Marshon Brooks, SG/SF, BKN		50	34

Team	<center> Mon 11/5 </center>	<center> Tue 11/6 </center>	<center> Wed 11/7 </center>	<center> Thu 11/8 </center>	<center> Fri 11/9 </center>	<center> Sat 11/10 </center>	<center> Sun 11/11 </center>	<center> </center>
Atlanta Hawks	OFF	OFF	IND R: 4	OFF	MIA R: 4	OFF	@LAC R: 4	G: 3 H: 2 R: 2
Boston Celtics	OFF	OFF	WSH R: 4	OFF	PHI R: 1	@MIL R: 5	OFF	G: 3 H: 2 R: 2
Brooklyn Nets	MIN R: 5	OFF	@MIA R: 2	OFF	@ORL R: 2	OFF	ORL R: 1	G: 4 H: 2 R: 4
Charlotte Bobcats	OFF	OFF	PHX R: 1	OFF	@NO R: 2	DAL R: 1	OFF	G: 3 H: 2 R: 1
Chicago Bulls	OFF	ORL R: 4	OFF	OKC R: 5	OFF	MIN R: 8	OFF	G: 3 H: 3 R: 4
Cleveland Cavaliers	@LAC R: 2	OFF	@GS R: 6	OFF	@PHX R: 4	OFF	@OKC R: 3	G: 4 H: 0 R: 5
Dallas Mavericks	POR R: 6	OFF	TOR R: 4	OFF	@NY R: 6	@CHA R: 9	OFF	G: 4 H: 2 R: 8
Denver Nuggets	OFF	DET R: 9	@HOU R: 9	OFF	UTA R: 8	@GS R: 10	OFF	G: 4 H: 2 R: 10
Detroit Pistons	OFF	@DEN R: 5	@SAC R: 7	OFF	@OKC R: 2	@HOU R: 3	OFF	G: 4 H: 0 R: 5
Golden State Warriors	@SAC R: 9	OFF	CLE R: 8	OFF	@LAL R: 4	DEN R: 8	OFF	G: 4 H: 2 R: 9
Houston Rockets	OFF	OFF	DEN R: 8	OFF	@MEM R: 5	DET R: 7	OFF	G: 3 H: 2 R: 5
Indiana Pacers	@SA R: 6	OFF	@ATL R: 5	OFF	@MIN R: 7	WSH R: 6	OFF	G: 4 H: 1 R: 8
Los Angeles Clippers	CLE R: 9	OFF	SA R: 6	@POR R: 7	OFF	OFF	ATL R: 5	G: 4 H: 3 R: 9
Los Angeles Lakers	OFF	OFF	@UTA R: 6	OFF	GS R: 8	OFF	SAC R: 10	G: 3 H: 2 R: 6
Memphis Grizzlies	UTA R: 7	OFF	@MIL R: 6	OFF	HOU R: 6	OFF	MIA R: 5	G: 4 H: 3 R: 8
Miami Heat	PHX R: 8	OFF	BKN R: 9	OFF	@ATL R: 6	OFF	@MEM R: 7	G: 4 H: 2 R: 9
Milwaukee Bucks	OFF	OFF	MEM R: 5	OFF	@WSH R: 6	BOS R: 4	OFF	G: 3 H: 2 R: 3
Minnesota Timberwolves	@BKN R: 7	OFF	ORL R: 2	OFF	IND R: 3	@CHI R: 1	OFF	G: 4 H: 2 R: 5
New Orleans Hornets	OFF	OFF	PHI R: 1	OFF	CHA R: 7	OFF	OFF	G: 2 H: 2 R: 1
New York Knicks	@PHI R: 2	OFF	OFF	OFF	DAL R: 6	OFF	OFF	G: 2 H: 1 R: 1
Oklahoma City Thunder	OFF	TOR R: 8	OFF	@CHI R: 4	DET R: 10	OFF	CLE R: 10	G: 4 H: 3 R: 10
Orlando Magic	OFF	@CHI R: 1	@MIN R: 6	OFF	BKN R: 7	OFF	@BKN R: 7	G: 4 H: 1 R: 6
Philadelphia 76ers	NY R: 4	OFF	@NO R: 5	OFF	@BOS R: 3	@TOR R: 3	OFF	G: 4 H: 1 R: 5
Phoenix Suns	@MIA R: 4	OFF	@CHA R: 8	OFF	CLE R: 8	@UTA R: 6	OFF	G: 4 H: 1 R: 8
Portland Trail Blazers	@DAL R: 4	OFF	OFF	LAC R: 4	OFF	SA R: 6	OFF	G: 3 H: 2 R: 3
Sacramento Kings	GS R: 8	OFF	DEN R: 8	OFF	SA R: 6	OFF	@LAL R: 4	G: 4 H: 3 R: 8
San Antonio Spurs	IND R: 7	OFF	@LAC R: 6	OFF	@SAC R: 10	@POR R: 9	OFF	G: 4 H: 1 R: 10
Toronto Raptors	OFF	@OKC R: 3	@DAL R: 4	OFF	OFF	PHI R: 1	OFF	G: 3 H: 1 R: 1
Utah Jazz	@MEM R: 6	OFF	LAL R: 6	OFF	@DEN R: 9	PHX R: 8	OFF	G: 4 H: 2 R: 9
Washington Wizards	OFF	OFF	@BOS R: 3	OFF	MIL R: 5	@IND R: 4	OFF	G: 3 H: 1 R: 3

NBA Fantasy News 2012/2013

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

Forum statistics

Share this page